Under the Radar = Texas Ranger SP Kohei Arihara

 Kohei Arihari is Japanese and thus relatively unknown (thus sleeper) and unheralded in MLB Fantasy circles except by those who get paid to follow and write or broadcast about Fantasy Sports.

He is playing for a Texas Ranger team without name recognition pitchers.

He throws 7 different pitches.  He is playing in a revamped Texas stadium which in shortened 2020 indicated that fly balls wouldn't fly out of the ball.  MLB revised the baseball itself so it has less get up and go and Texas has young unheralded Outfielders (and infielders).

Big league hitters won't have a lot of information on this pitcher.  That gives the pitcher an advantage.  The big question mark for me is run support - will Texas score enough runs for Arihari to get wins or will he throw innings and walk away with a no decision or loss due to lack of support?

I plan to claim Kohei off the waiver wire in one of my leagues today replacing Brad Keller - KC SP.  I added Keller because he has the start today.  Tomorrow it will be Kohei's turn.  Roll the Dice.  The season is young.

MLB 2021 Fantasy - Players to keep an Eye on - Catcher

As April 1 approaches,  the search for the player or players that will out perform expectations as well as recognize players that may underperform is a key to winning a fantasy baseball title.

Every year the difference in finishing first or not often comes down to the manager who grabbed a player that was overlooked or undervalued.

Losing often comes down to bad luck - injuries of key players who can't be replaced from the waiver wire but the truth is few managers wina fantasy title without making moves on the waiver wire.

Catchers:

One player I am intrigued by going into 2021 is Toronto Catcher Alejandro Kirk.  Catchers is a shallow pool of production so if anyone performs well, it is an asset to have them on your team

So far, Kirk is hitting BUT the question for him as it is for many players is playing time.  I don't have Kirk on any of my 3 teams yet but do have him on my watch list as I wait to see how much playing time he may get in Toronto.

The other Catcher who has my attention is Shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa of Texas.  He seems to be set to play predominately at shortstop for Texas and bat 3rd in the order but is also eligible at 3B and Catcher.  Last season Isiah hit 0.280 and stole 8 bases.  A player who is Cather eligible and stealing 20 bases?  That is what I see.  He won't won't me on average and he will provide a rare stat these days in stolen bases.  Batting 3rd should also give him an opportunity to provide useful stats in runs and RBIs whether he hits a ton of HRs or not.  I'll take 10 HRS / 20 SBs with a 0.280 average from my Catcher position.  

Final preparations for MLB 2021 fantasy draft

Draft Tips and strategies

 So you have completed your initial draft list.  You have rearranged the league standard list into a list more aligned with your own ideas of this person should be drafted before this person.

Now it's time to make the final preparations for the draft.  A bad draft doesn't mean you should throw in the towel BUT a good draft makes winning easier.  So let's start with a good draft.

Mock Draft - doing a mock draft will help you have a successful real draft in fantasy sports.  I did several mock drafts at Yahoo Sports  using my predraft list and from different positions in the draft - early pick, middle pick and last pick.  The software graded my draft as a B which is OK with me because I disagree with some of their projections.

Hitting:

I sort my draft list using batting average and color code the results:

When I used actually statistics from 2020 - shortened Covid impacted season - I get a lot of hitters who hit well - Orange = >300; Dark Green = .290 and higher but also pink <0.250, yellow <0.270    I try to avoid hitters whose average is below 0.250 because avg is one of the 5 hitting stats and a couple of players below 0.250 means you will risk always losing that stat.  Instead I try to find hitters with similar profiles with better averages.  Preferably hitters who don't have yellow or pink colors.

I also sorted using Fantasypros projections for 2021.  There were only 4 hitters projected to hit above .300 and several hitters who had horrible 2020 seasons (in the pink) are projected to rebound in 2021.

Pitching:

I don't have the same metrics for pitching as I have for hitting.  For hitting I can use the Total 4 score (R, RBIs, HRs and Sbs) plus color coding.  This is especially good for points leagues.  In Head to head I must still maintain a sense of balance - do I have enough HRs?  Enough Sbs?  I want to win 3 out of 5 stats each week in hitting and 3 in pitching. 6 out of 10 = win.

So for pitching - wins, saves, strikeouts, WHIP and ERA.  I focus on getting a couple of pitchers who will be Starting Pitchers 1 or 2 on their teams who have good WHIP, ERA and Ks.  

I need 20 innings minimum so I focus more or Relief Pitching by trying to draft 4 closers.  If I get 4 quality Closers then I should win Saves, WHIP and ERA.  

With Starting Pitchers who give me high K/9 I may also win the K category and maybe even wins.  

So of the 8 pitching slots, I try for 3 SPs and 5 Relief Pitchers with at least 4 of those 5 being closers.  I then add 3 more pitchers for pitchers for the bench with at least 1 being a reliever who has Starting eligibility such as Seth Lugo or Diego Castillo.  The other 2 may be High Upside Starting Pitchers who have good K/9 and limited risk for ERA.  Elieser Hernandez from Miami is one such pitcher I am targeting late. 

Please NOTE:  If you are playing in a league that is points or Roto, these pitching tips won't work.  They are good for head to head.

Sleepers, darkhorses and those who are just moving on up

It's fantasy football time and I have been having fun trying to see the future without a crystal ball. One thing I learned last year is that some players who everyone thinks is a sure fire must will end the season as a bust and someone who goes undrafted to start the season will finish as a must have. The manager who guesses correctly which "studs" to avoid on draft day and which sleeper to grab will probably win your league.

Last season our league champion drafted what on paper looked to be a weaker team than several other teams. He drafted QB Tom Brady, WR Randy Moss and rookie RB Adrian Peterson. He was at a disadvantage in that he was at work and offline while the rest of us was gathered together in a draftroom. His disadvantage turned to gold as he ended the season with 3 of best players at their position = QB, RB and WR.

So who to draft this year, who to avoid and who are the diamonds that everyone else mistakes for coal?

I am keeping a list of those who are moving up or down in my estimation as I read about the training camps. Among RBs, Willis McGahee is one that is moving down my draftboard. Why? Because the Ravens OL is young, inexperienced and bitten by the injury bug in training camp. That means the new OL is having trouble getting to play together and gel. The Ravens also have inexperienced and unproven QBs competing for the starting job. All of that plus a rookie RB in Ray Rice who may steal quite a few touches and TDs from McGahee is sending Willis down to a RB 2 or RB3 on my depth charts come draft day.

Moving up is Bengals' Chris Perry who looks like he may be the #2 RB for the Bengals this season. Look for him to get 10 to 15 touches a game even as Rudi is back as the workhorse back. RB Kenny Watson moves down for the same reason. But Rudi could be steal on draft day as his average draft position has fallen tremendously. He was a Top 10 pick a year ago and is now being drafted in RB3 and RB4 territory. If he stays healthy, he is still RB1/RB2 material so if you get him as a RB3 or RB4 you have a steal.

Another Bengal RB to watch is rookie James Johnson out of Kansas State. He is the talk of the Bengals' training camp and may send DeDe Dorsey to another team. QB Palmer had this to say "I can't wait to watch JJ, No. 39 on offense play," Palmer said of free agent rookie tailback James Johnson of Kansas State. "He's Warrick Dunn, great hands, explosively fast, real exciting to watch." Cincinnati Enquirer I do not suggest drafting James Johnson as a sleeper - there are better candidates out there such as Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, R. Mendenhall - but he is a player to watch and IF the injury bug strikes the Bengals RBs someone who may surprise. Mostly I see him as a player for next year's draft unless you are in a dynasty league. Then you may want to take a sleeper pick on him.

To see all of my Undervalued and sleeper picks, visit my website http://timnew.com/fantasy_sports