Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Crowded backfield in Denver

I recently read a fantasy magazines view of the Denver running backs as "if you could combine all of them into one player, you would have a fantasy stud" - my paraphrase rather than a direct quote. Their comment was made in the Spring before Travis Henry and Mike Bell were released (and replaced) but is still a valid point. It appears many running backs will get carries in Denver and guessing which one will get the majority is like playing the shell game - blink and you lost which shell hides the ball.

Yesterday's Denver Post places Anthony Aldridge in the mix now along with Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and Ryan Torain. If you haven't heard of Aldridge, I'm not surprised. He isn't mentioned in 6 of the 7 fantasy football magazines I looked at, and I haven't seen him mentioned as even a sleeper by anyone online. ESPN Magazine was the only one that had him on the depth chart in their publication. So you may want to make one of the Broncos' RB a sleeper pick in your draft but be ready to change horses midstream off the waiver wire this season if you do.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Drew Brees goes in 1st Round of Draft

According to mockdraftcentral the average draft position of New Orleans' Saints' QB Drew Brees is 30.87 with a highest draft position of 20 and a low of 40. WELL that sure changed tonight as he went #7 in my fantasy football draft on fleaflicker. I should know, I was the one who drafted him with the seventh pick. Why did I draft him so high? A couple of reasons.

One reason is that I think Drew Brees may be the best fantasy QB this season. Yes better than Brady, better than Peyton and better than Romo (although I drafted Romo also). Last season Brees was second only to Brady in passing yards with 4,423 yards to Brady's 4,806. It is very possible if not probable that Brees will pass for at least 4,400 yards again this year as his receiving corp has improved with the addition of TE Jeremy Shockey and a healthy 2nd year WR Robert Meachem. Shockey should also result in more clear space for RB Reggie Bush.

Brees also led the NFL last season in pass attempts (652) and pass completions (440). He also threw for 28 TDs (but 18 INTs). I expect Brees to be better this season than last when he had a very slow start. I also look for his TDs to increase (only passing stat Romo bested Brees last season - Romo had 36).

Anyway my second reason I drafted Brees 7th was the nature of the league and my draft position coupled with mock draft results. This league starts: 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST and 2 Utility slots (can be any position). There are 8 teams and my draft position was 7. All of the Elite RBs are taken before I get a chance so I could either take an elite WR, a Top 5 QB or a second tier RB. I did 3 mock drafts which simulated our draft. In the first 2 I took a RB and QB in the first 2 rounds and ended up with a mediocre team at the end. In the Third I took Brady in the first and the computer had the person behind me grab Brees. I did the draft again and drafted Brees first and the computer took Randy Moss 8th and a RB 9th leaving me Tom Brady. In each of the mock drafts, the computer had Romo going first among the QBs (before my position at 7). In the 2 mocks when I took QB-QB in the first 2 rounds, I did much better. The reality struck me. QBs were a premium in this draft because of its format. So I drafted Brees first knowing I would get either Romo, Palmer or Big Ben with the 10th pick. I got Romo.

My draft ended up as:
4 QBS out of 4 allowed:

QB Drew Brees - 1.7
QB Tony Romo - 2.2
QB Jason Campbell (a surprise he was available in Rd 9 -- 9.7
QB Brett Favre - worth a later pick just in case he plays --20.2

5 RBS out of 6 allowed:

RB Darren McFadden - 3.7
RB Jonathan Stewart - 6.2
RB Tommy Jones - 8.2
RB Brandon Jacobs - 10.2
RB Chris Johnson - 15.7

7 WRS out of 7 allowed

WR Andre Johnson - 4.2
WR T. Houshmandzadeh - 5.7 I was shocked he was still on the board in the 5th
WR S. Holmes - 7.7
WR S. Moss - 14.2
WR L. Coles - 16.2
WR B. Johnson - 17.7
WR A. Bryant - 19.2

2 TEs out of 3 allowed

TE J. Shockey - 11.7
TE V. Davis - 12.2

1 K out of 3 allowed

K Gould - 21.7

and 2 DSt out of 3 allowed

DST Seattle - 13.7
DST Saints - 18.2

Total roster is 21 players with 8 being on the bench.

After the draft I dropped Antonio Bryant (who I like as a sleeper) because I though my WRS were strong and my RBS "iffy". I replaced him with Miami RB Ricky Williams who the Dolphins are proclaiming as their best player in camp. With Ronnie Brown coming off an ACL injury, adding Ricky made sense to me.

Darren McFadden was my 3rd pick because my mocks showed he would be gone before I got another chance in Rd 5, and I needed a home run threat since the league has bonuses not only for yards but long runs. Being from Arkansas I really like DMAC's chances this season in Oakland. He is fast and strong. If he can avoid injury, he will be a Top 10 RB this season if not in the Top 5. He is also a good receiver and can even throw (the UA used him as a QB at times). He is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball from anywhere on the field. Chris Johnson in Tennessee may be the only RB faster than McFadden. That is why I grabbed Johnson also.

Why did I take both Shockey and Davis at TE when they both have the same BYE week? Well I didn't know at the time both had week 9 Byes but I would have taken them both anyway. Both are potential breakout candidates at TE. If only 1 breaks out, I'll drop the other. They were the only TEs I wanted left on the board.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Sleepers, darkhorses and those who are just moving on up

It's fantasy football time and I have been having fun trying to see the future without a crystal ball. One thing I learned last year is that some players who everyone thinks is a sure fire must will end the season as a bust and someone who goes undrafted to start the season will finish as a must have. The manager who guesses correctly which "studs" to avoid on draft day and which sleeper to grab will probably win your league.

Last season our league champion drafted what on paper looked to be a weaker team than several other teams. He drafted QB Tom Brady, WR Randy Moss and rookie RB Adrian Peterson. He was at a disadvantage in that he was at work and offline while the rest of us was gathered together in a draftroom. His disadvantage turned to gold as he ended the season with 3 of best players at their position = QB, RB and WR.

So who to draft this year, who to avoid and who are the diamonds that everyone else mistakes for coal?

I am keeping a list of those who are moving up or down in my estimation as I read about the training camps. Among RBs, Willis McGahee is one that is moving down my draftboard. Why? Because the Ravens OL is young, inexperienced and bitten by the injury bug in training camp. That means the new OL is having trouble getting to play together and gel. The Ravens also have inexperienced and unproven QBs competing for the starting job. All of that plus a rookie RB in Ray Rice who may steal quite a few touches and TDs from McGahee is sending Willis down to a RB 2 or RB3 on my depth charts come draft day.

Moving up is Bengals' Chris Perry who looks like he may be the #2 RB for the Bengals this season. Look for him to get 10 to 15 touches a game even as Rudi is back as the workhorse back. RB Kenny Watson moves down for the same reason. But Rudi could be steal on draft day as his average draft position has fallen tremendously. He was a Top 10 pick a year ago and is now being drafted in RB3 and RB4 territory. If he stays healthy, he is still RB1/RB2 material so if you get him as a RB3 or RB4 you have a steal.

Another Bengal RB to watch is rookie James Johnson out of Kansas State. He is the talk of the Bengals' training camp and may send DeDe Dorsey to another team. QB Palmer had this to say "I can't wait to watch JJ, No. 39 on offense play," Palmer said of free agent rookie tailback James Johnson of Kansas State. "He's Warrick Dunn, great hands, explosively fast, real exciting to watch." Cincinnati Enquirer I do not suggest drafting James Johnson as a sleeper - there are better candidates out there such as Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, R. Mendenhall - but he is a player to watch and IF the injury bug strikes the Bengals RBs someone who may surprise. Mostly I see him as a player for next year's draft unless you are in a dynasty league. Then you may want to take a sleeper pick on him.

To see all of my Undervalued and sleeper picks, visit my website http://timnew.com/fantasy_sports

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Brett Favre buyout

Can the Packers do anything else to shoot themselves in the foot? Offering Brett 20 million dollars to stay retired? Stupid. The Packers have put themselves into a corner. If they do not take Brett back now and do worse this year than last year, fans will crucify the GM and Head Coach. And rightly so. Favre took the Packers to the AFC finals and lost a close one. Anything less than that this year without Brett will rebound upon the Packers business people. And honestly, I do not see Rodgers getting the Packers that far. He may have the talent, but he doesn't have the experience. And that lack of experience will keep the Packers from excelling this year. With Favre the Packers are legitimate Superbowl contenders this year. Without him, they position themselves to contend in a few years. Will Packer fans be happy with that?

On another point, I think it would be hilarious if Brett was to offer the Packers a buyout. The Packers offered him $20 million to stay retired. How would they respond if Brett offered them $2 million or so to be released? That would be a $14 million deal for the Packers - they get cash plus don't have to pay Brett his $12 million.

And what about the Red Socks paying to get rid of their best player - Manny Ramirez? I wish some of these people with money to burn would send some to me. For a mere million dollars I would write blogs that praised such bone headed moves by management. Boston just wrote off this year and probably the next few. They now become a rebuilding team. Yes they got Jason Bay, but Bay is no Manny.

In one respect the trade does help me in my fantasy leagues. I have Broxton as one of my closers in several leagues and Manny helps him a lot.

If you haven't visited my fantasy Sports pages, take a gander http://timnew.com/fantasy_sports. I have now added even more Fantasy Football information including my subjective sleeper list and list of undervalued players as I follow the training camps.

I have also added twitter. It's a fun addition to the Internet. My id is timdnew

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Time for Fantasy Football again

When the NFL season kicks off I will officially be in my sophomore year as a fantasy sports manager. Last year I began playing fantasy sports when my church started a league on ESPN. I quickly became hooked and now have played Fantasy basketball, fantasy baseball, fantasy hockey and already have a half-dozen fantasy football teams drafted this year with another draft planned for this Thursday on Sporting News. That will leave me with ESPN to draft.

I plan to play fantasy football on ESPN (again), NFL.com, Yahoo, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, and Sporting News just so I can experience and compare the features each has to offer. I have teams on 4 of the 6 already drafted. I am also playing in a couple of IDP leagues this year plus one with return yardage.

If you want a one stop site for Fantasy Resources, check out my website: http://timnew.com/fantasy_sports as I seek to collect a wealth of resources for the fantasy sports fan. I am doing it for myself but it should be a valuable "portal" for any fantasy sports player. I am currently collecting Training Camp resources and adding them to the site. Come visit and comment.

Friday, December 28, 2007

NBA Hot Shots - week 9

Are you needing some help at PG or maybe in the trenches at PF or Center? Usually finding gems at these positions at this time of year is difficult. But there may just be a couple lurking in your fantasy league's pool.

Players such as Charlotte Bobcat Center Nazr Mohammed, Cleveland Cavalier Anderson Varejao, Milwaukee's Yi Jian, and Houston Rocket Luther Head were some of the players I highlighted on Screaming Sports this past Monday as players to grab if available. See Screaming Sports Post

A couple to add to the list are Washington Wizard Roger Mason who has been exceptional the past 3 games and Josh Boone of the New Jersey Nets. Boone has been in double figures the past 3 games and had no fewer than 8 rebounds. Not bad for a waiver wire grab here at the end of the year. He seems to have found favor in New Jersey and is getting the minutes.

Roger Mason has replaced Antonio Daniels who in turn replaced Gilbert Arenas. The past 2 games has seen him score 20 and 24 points respectively. He also has averaged 4.5 assists and 5 rebounds while playing over 40 minutes a game. He is 16 of 27 from the field and 7 of 14 from behind the arc (he was just 1 of 5 against Indiana but bounced back with 6 of 9 against Charlotte). He is also an excellent free throw shooter 90.9% on the season. As he gets the minutes, I expect his assists to increase.

I dropped Boone from my NBA Rotisserie league because someone dropped Yi this week after he had a poor outing. I say I dropped Boone. Actually I conditionally dropped him while making a waiver claim on Yi. I hope I am successful. I chose to drop Boone rather than Varejao because Josh has not proven to be a good free throw shooter and that is an area my NBA team is doing well. I consider Boone and Varejao to be similar in ability to give you 7 to 10 rebounds a night and about 10 to 15 points. I am holding onto Bargnani hoping he turns his season back around. The report is that he is tired from playing all summer.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

Kiss of death?

Kiss of death?

I recommend them, and the next game they fall apart. What kind of fate is that? I recommended Marko Jaric and he had a good start last night. He had 4 points and 4 assists in the opening minutes. Then he sprained his ankle. I haven't heard how serious the sprain is but he didn't play anymore yesterday.

Louis Williams from Philadelphia saw a total of 9 minutes of PT. I haven't heard if that was injury related or not but 9 minutes isn't going to make anyone a fantasy play.

NHL

On happier news, Havlat is back in Chicago. In his first game back he scored 2 goals for the Blackhawks and yesterday had an assist on their first score against Phoenix. After that Byfuglien took over. Basically an unknown in fantasy hockey circles before last night, Byfuglien scored 3 goals and had an assist as the Blackhawks jumped out to an early 5-0 lead over the Coyotes.

To place that into perspective, before Friday he had 3 G, 1 Assist, -1, 11 PIM, 1 PPP and 20 SOG for 24.5 fan Pts. Friday he was a Plus 2 and had 5 shots on Goal and added 4 Penalty Minutes for good measure in addition to the 3 Goals (2 on PP) and assist. In my league that totals 19 fantasy points. Not a bad coming out party. I added him to my watch list since this was his first game skating with a new line. Maybe it is a foretaste of things to come. But I'm not going to grab him until I see more.

Parise gets the hat trick

Devils forward Zach Parise had his first hat trick on Friday night in a 4-0 win against the Montreal Canadiens. Parise scored a goal in each period and assisted on Brian Gionta's third period goal.

Atlanta recalls Goalie Kari Lehtonen Saturday from an AHL reconditioning assignment after missing 16 games with a groin injury. Kari started the season awful before the injury. However not only did teh Thrashers recall Lehtonen but he is starting at Goalie tonight for them. Needing a Starting Goalie, I added him by dropping Mike Smith. I won't get the benefit (or detriment) of Lehtonen until tomorrow. I now have him, Coyotes' Bryzgalov who had an awful game last night against Chicago and Montreal plattooner Huet as my 3 Goalies. Other than Goalie, I have a strong fantasy team with:

C Mike Ribeiro (Dal - C)
C Martin Straka (NYR - C,LW)
C Jason Williams (Chi - C,RW)
C Zach Parise (NJ - C,LW)

LW Evgeni Malkin (Pit - C,LW)
LW Ilya Kovalchuk (Atl - LW)

RW Martin Havlat (Chi - RW)
RW Justin Williams (Car - RW)
RW Martin Erat (Nsh - LW,RW)

D Bryan McCabe (Tor - D)
D Nicklas Lidstrom (Det - D)
D Brent Burns (Min - D)
D Shea Weber (Nsh - D)

We can play 2 Centers, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 Defensemen and 2 Goalies daily. Having players like Erat and all of my Centers other than Ribeiro able to play multiple positions helps. I am currently 4th out of 12 in my Yahoo Point league. With a little consistentcy at Goalie, I could get to #1.