Mock Draft Results

Yahoo mock draft for a 12 team draft; Head to Head, 5x5

With my first draft of the season coming up tomorrow I joined a mock draft to test my idea of drafting hitters for the first 4 rounds, then taking a starting pitchers and 3 top closers.  I chose the middle position to test it out.  My results follow:

My first 9 picks were:

1.  Mookie Betts

2.  A. Mondesi

3.  Ozzie Albies

4.  W. Merrifield (I wanted to see my team if I took him.  With Mondesi drafted I probably would have                               gone Power bat here - maybe J. Abreu, M. Ozuna)

5.  T. Glascow

6.  J. Hader

7.  S. Gray

8.  J. Karinchak

9.  K. Jansen

This projects me to finish 4th according to Yahoo.  That would be based on points and this is HTH.  Plus I think it undervalues the playing time of many of the players I choose - note the projected ABs for players like Dominic Smith and Ke'Bryan Hayes both draft targets of mine.  I expect both to be daily players so the projected ABs of 431 and 428 are low in my opinion.  

I purposely took Chris Sale to test out which pitchers would still be left undrafted.  My plan tomorrow is to draft both Chris Sale and Noah Snydergaard and then place them on the IL and fill in from the waiver wire post draft.  

Most drafts from the 6th spot will give me Mike Trout rather than Mookie Betts.  I may look at adding Colorado OF Tapia to my lineup to give me more runs - one area this mock draft (with the ABS projected) show me being weak.

Now I need to test it again from a low draft position like 12.

Final preparations for MLB 2021 fantasy draft

Draft Tips and strategies

 So you have completed your initial draft list.  You have rearranged the league standard list into a list more aligned with your own ideas of this person should be drafted before this person.

Now it's time to make the final preparations for the draft.  A bad draft doesn't mean you should throw in the towel BUT a good draft makes winning easier.  So let's start with a good draft.

Mock Draft - doing a mock draft will help you have a successful real draft in fantasy sports.  I did several mock drafts at Yahoo Sports  using my predraft list and from different positions in the draft - early pick, middle pick and last pick.  The software graded my draft as a B which is OK with me because I disagree with some of their projections.

Hitting:

I sort my draft list using batting average and color code the results:

When I used actually statistics from 2020 - shortened Covid impacted season - I get a lot of hitters who hit well - Orange = >300; Dark Green = .290 and higher but also pink <0.250, yellow <0.270    I try to avoid hitters whose average is below 0.250 because avg is one of the 5 hitting stats and a couple of players below 0.250 means you will risk always losing that stat.  Instead I try to find hitters with similar profiles with better averages.  Preferably hitters who don't have yellow or pink colors.

I also sorted using Fantasypros projections for 2021.  There were only 4 hitters projected to hit above .300 and several hitters who had horrible 2020 seasons (in the pink) are projected to rebound in 2021.

Pitching:

I don't have the same metrics for pitching as I have for hitting.  For hitting I can use the Total 4 score (R, RBIs, HRs and Sbs) plus color coding.  This is especially good for points leagues.  In Head to head I must still maintain a sense of balance - do I have enough HRs?  Enough Sbs?  I want to win 3 out of 5 stats each week in hitting and 3 in pitching. 6 out of 10 = win.

So for pitching - wins, saves, strikeouts, WHIP and ERA.  I focus on getting a couple of pitchers who will be Starting Pitchers 1 or 2 on their teams who have good WHIP, ERA and Ks.  

I need 20 innings minimum so I focus more or Relief Pitching by trying to draft 4 closers.  If I get 4 quality Closers then I should win Saves, WHIP and ERA.  

With Starting Pitchers who give me high K/9 I may also win the K category and maybe even wins.  

So of the 8 pitching slots, I try for 3 SPs and 5 Relief Pitchers with at least 4 of those 5 being closers.  I then add 3 more pitchers for pitchers for the bench with at least 1 being a reliever who has Starting eligibility such as Seth Lugo or Diego Castillo.  The other 2 may be High Upside Starting Pitchers who have good K/9 and limited risk for ERA.  Elieser Hernandez from Miami is one such pitcher I am targeting late. 

Please NOTE:  If you are playing in a league that is points or Roto, these pitching tips won't work.  They are good for head to head.

Fantasy Baseball 2021 - setting your PREdraft list

 Yahoo’s PreDraft Rankings is certainly not aligned with my values.  If I leave their settings and miss the draft I will end up with a lot of pitchers early and miss key offense.  

I start with Fantasy Pros composite ranking.  So first I reorder Yahoo’s Predraft list to resemble Fantasy Pros list.  Then I rearrange it based on my personal examination of the player pool.  But even if I went strictly with Fantasy Pros composite list without any adjustments of my own, I think I’d have a better draft than using Yahoo’s Default.

Adjusting the drafting list takes time but is worth it.  The default list by Yahoo is heavy on pitching and speculative.  Gerit Cole is their default # 1 and he is a good pitcher but for fantasy purposes, most will have Jacob deGrom drafting before Gerit Cole.  Why?  deGrom pitches at Citifield which is one of the BEST pitching parks in MLB.   But top pitchers aside, Yahoo’s default will have you drafting relief pitchers who not closers over hitters you need to win.  

Of course, if all the other fantasy players follow Yahoo and draft Chris Martin before Cody Bellinger then it doesn’t matter.  But they won’t.  Some will enter the draft unprepared and their draft will suck.  Don’t let that person be you.

In the screenshot of my spreadsheet, you can see My rank - 1st column - and Yahoo's default rank - before the players name (I copied my list from Yahoo and pasted it into my spreadsheet so it shows Yahoo's default ranking before the player's name).  Don't worry about the colors - I used them to alert myself to move players on the list before I finished my ranking.

FantasyPros and MLB are 2 sites that provide a lot of free cheatsheets and of course ESPN (I haven’t even looked at ESPN yet this year for fantasy).  Look at their suggested draft order and I suggest starting with FantasyPros as your default.

Once you have taken the time to arrange Yahoo’s default drafting list into a better list, then adjust it.

For Yahoo 12 team Head to Head teams, you will draft 23 players each so 276 players in total.  Collectively, the 12 team will need to draft 120 hitters and 96 pitchers plus 60 bench players.  Those 60 bench players could be all hitters, all pitchers or a combination (most likely).  So your draft list needs to have only about 300 players.

Among those 300 players on your list, you should have players you want to take in the later rounds who have upside.  By round 20, your basic team is set.  You can take a chance on a breakout player or a prospect OR take an injured player.  If you take an injured player, you have 4 IR spots so after the draft, place the injured player on the IR and replace them with a player from the undrafted pool.  This year you have both Chris Sale (Boston Starting Pitcher) and Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets) starting pitcher on the IL coming back from Tommy John Surgery and Yankee Pitcher Severino who never fully recovered last season.  All 3 could be useful stashed on the IL - You don’t want to use all 4 IL spots on drafted players since once the season begins you will need to use the IL for some of your rostered players who get injured. But using 1 or 2?  Why not.  Worst case you can drop them if necessary.

once you think you have your 300 players listed and aligned as you like, test the list by doing a Mock draft.  Select using your draft list in the mock draft.  I suggest doing at least 3 mock drafts - draft from position 1, middle and last.  You don’t know the draft order until just before your draft so see how your team looks if you draft from 3 different spots. Then adjust your draft list again to fix any problems you spot - maybe you need to move a hitter up or a pitcher or you may be able to move somebody down.   The screen shot above shows a mock draft on Yahoo - note I selected to use my draft ranking list so the software now shows - my ranking, Yahoo's default rank and what they call XRank which I think stands for experts ranking.  You can toggle between them and this is useful IF you have a lot of players who didn't create their own custom list.  You can get an idea of who the system is suggesting they draft at that moment and anticipate when your targeted player may be drafted.  Play with it in your mock drafts so you are comfortable using it come draft day.  Also play with Search for a player BUT if you customize your draft list before the draft day, that shouldn't be a problem.  For example, Texas Closer Jose Leclerc won't be in Yahoo's default listing.  They have him at 1960 or something.  You'll need to adjust the list so you see him if you want to draft him or use the search feature - better to add him before the draft.

Finally, monitor the news before the draft and adjust your list or draft plan accordingly.  For example, Houston Pitcher Framber Valdez was a “hot" pick going into the preseason based on last year.  He was being drafted about 100 so 9th round.  The first day pitching in spring training?  He fractured his ring finger.  That will impact his value.  Drafting him at 100 is now too high.  His training will be disrupted so expect him to pitch fewer innings this year than originally projected.

2021 MLB PreDraft - Know your League Settings

 Fantasy Sportsaholic MLB Draft Prep

My first 2021 draft is set on Yahoo for Saturday, March 6

Remember I said it was important to “know” the league settings. 

This league has what I consider a pretty basic lineup - C 1B 2B 3B SS OF OF OF and 2 Utility Players.   They also allow for 5 bench players and importantly 4 Injured.  Last year with Covid I felt at times I didn’t have enough IL spots.  4 is good.  2 is iffy.  0 is a nightmare.

Now go to settings (under League Tab) and check the scoring and other information.

The league is head to head with daily lineups - I prefer daily lineups.

No Maximum for acquisitions on the season BUT there is a weekly maximum of 6 - that will allow some weekly changes but not full streaming of pitchers for example.  

Note also that the pitching requirement of 20 minimum innings pitched each week.  That means you probably need a couple of pitchers each week who start and pitch 5 innings each.  Plan for 3 Starting pitchers minimum is better.  

Note the “allow injured players from waivers to go directly to IL” is NO.  That means IF I want to add an IL eligible player to my roster (stash them for later), I need an empty spot on my roster first.  I may have another player who is IL eligible whom I can move to IL first and then add the new player, and then move them to IL or I may have to drop a player first.  Some Team Managers will drop very good players to waivers when they go on IL.  Some I will take knowing they will make a difference for my team after coming off IL.

 

Now notice the Scoring - again this is now 5x5 scoring that is more or common (but not every league follows it so always check your scoring).  R+HR+RBIs+SBs form the core of the hitter stats along with Avg.  

Pitching is also 5 - W, S, Ks, ERA and WHIP.

So now as I consider players to draft I am looking at my combined 4 (R+HRS+RBIS+SBS) as my tool.  I want players who give me the highest total BUT also need to keep an eye open for SBs and Avg.  For Pitching I am watching WHIP and K/9 while keeping ERA in mind but if their WHIP is good the ERA should also be good.  I don’t focus on Wins but try to draft a couple of SP1 (Pitchers who are the first tier pitcher for their team) plus 3 closers then get high k/9 low Whip pitchers even if they are not SPs or Closers.  Often a relief pitcher who gets 2 or 3 innings or even a setup pitcher who just pitches 1 inning will pick up wins while giving you Ks and low WHIP.  If yo have 3 good closers on your pitching staff, you can win 4 of the 5 Pitching stats each week and win your league.

Now you know your League Settings, it’s time to arrange your Draft List - Do NOT rely on the Default setting.

Next Blog - setting your Pre-Draft Rankings.

BACK IN THE SADDLE

 Wow, it has been a long time since I blogged about Fantasy Sports.  There was a time when I played Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Football and Fantasy Hockey.  Then in 2009 I moved to South Korea and then in 2011 to Hong Kong - I still played but I quit blogging about it.  

In 2013 I moved to China and my days of playing Fantasy Sports paused.  It was difficult to keep up from the other side of the world especially when the Chinese Government blocked sites.  Did you know Dobber Hockey is blocked by China?  Strange.

Anyway, last year I resumed Fantasy Baseball since Covid19 had me sitting around doing almost nothing (I was still in China at the time) so I went back to playing only to have Covid disrupt the game in the US adding a risk element that made managing .... interesting.  I still managed to eek out one or two first place finishes .

So now it's 2021

It's time to prepare for the new Fantasy Baseball Season.

First - know your facts.

    This includes Stats but isn't limited to Stats.  It means first you need to know the league details in which you are going to play.  How many players?  What positions?  What STATS count?  How are the counted?  Is it Head to Head each week or is it ROTO?  Are lineups set daily or weekly?  Is there a limit on transactions?  Minimums on Innings pitched?  Maximums?  Player Eligibility Rule? 

Get to know the league rules BEFORE you draft.

Second - Know your Players.  I started with the Leagure rules because it affects your players stats you want to know.  If Stikeouts for example is a negative stat for a hitter, you need to know that so you can adjust your ranking of a power hitter who strikes out a lot.  For Pitchers, do HomeRuns allowed count as a negative?  When you know the league rules, then you can look at the Stats that are important for you in that league.

I start with last year's MLB stats.  FantasyPros makes it easy.  https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/stats/hitters.php?range=2020  They provide you with stats for hitters and pitchers.

I take those stats and copy them into a spreadsheet which allows me to refine what I am looking for in my players.  I am in the process of doing that today.  I add my own columns to both hitting and pitching stats.

For hitting, I create a Runs+RBIs+HR+SB column.  These are the primary 4 stats used in most Fantasy leagues whether it is head to head or Roto.  I also then create a column that takes that combined number and divides it by "at bats".  Now I can see who does the most with opportunity.  

For pitching, I am interested in Strikeouts which the stats show but also Strikeouts per 9 innings and the strikeout / walk ratio.  I also look at WHIP.  Wins and losses depend so much on run support and frankly luck.  So I don't focus as much on a pitcher's win - loss records as I do Quality Starts, ERA, WHIP and K/9 and K/BB.

I'll post more after I finish getting my Stats in order.

It's Baseball Time!

I haven't been keeping in touch and for that I apologize.  I'll see how I do this time around.

I just recently moved to Hong Kong after living and working in South Korea for over a year.  Fantasy Sports is different from this side of the world.  What makes it different?  Time for one.  I am 12 to 13 hours ahead of U.S. East Coast time.  Daylight Saving time isn't observed so the time varies depending on the time of year.  South Korea is 1 hour ahead of Hong Kong so last year I was even farther ahead time-wise.  That makes playing Fantasy Sports different in and of itself. You have to plan your draft times differently.  What is a "normal" draft time in the U.S. is not a normal time here.  While living in South Korea I typically planned all my drafts for Friday or Saturday since it would be Saturday or Sunday for me.

Now I am in Hong Kong, I will again have to plan my draft times carefully.  I work M-F from 2 pm until 8 pm and Saturday from 9 am until 6 pm.  So I can do weekday drafts so long as they will finish before noon or so my time.  So a Tuesday 9 PM draft in the USA will be a Wednesday 10 am draft for me.  Get it?

The other major difference is simply keeping up with the games.  Night games there are morning or even noon games here.  But it can also be an advantage working the wires since most games use 2 AM or so ET as the time for clearing waivers.  That in around 3 PM here so while players sleep in the US I can see who is a Free Agent or which waivers were won.

Now it's time for MLB and I'm using the net for information more than ever.  I use to buy Fantasy magazines but here they are hard to get and expensive to have shipped from  the States so one has to adjust to using mostly on-line services.  I did before but I always had the hard copy also.  Now it is mostly digital.

I'll try to get back into the habit of posting again.  Until then, ....

I told you so ....

It's been a while since I blogged - I seem to twitter more these days. But I'll try to make an honest effort to get back to blogging about Fantasy Sports.

This season I have 2 roto teams on FoxSports whose lineups Include SP and RP and whose lineups are set daily. I also have 1 "Ultimate" team on Sporting News which includes SP and RP also and whose lineups are set daily. The difference is in the number of scoring categories and how scoring is kept. The FoxSports leagues are standard 5x5 roto, the ultimate has more scoring categories and has negatives for outs, strike outs, CS, and for pitchers for walks, hit by pitch, runs allowed, and hits allowed.

My other 3 regular fantasy teams are "once a week" leagues where you set your lineups prior to the first game being played on Monday. My CBS Sports team includes 5 SP and 2 RP while the MLB.com teams only include "team" pitching - you get points based on how well or poorly that team's pitching staff does in the game. I grabbed Boston in 1 league and was left with the Marlins in another. The first weeks the Marlins were the better staff to own but Boston has been looking much better of late. I added Seattle as an alternate in my league with Boston but have Boston going this week.

ALWAYS EVALUATE your team. Where are your weaknesses? Who is under performing? Who is on the Free Agent list in your league that can help you win now?

One of the keys to winning Fantasy Sports is making the right moves during the season as to who you have on your roster, and who you play versus sit on your bench. Don't get trapped by "names". It is stats that matter in Fantasy Sports and only stats. Adam Jones should be starting in your league above much more established "names". Chances are Adam wasn't even drafted or if it was it was a late inning "flier". He has been great. Detroits' Inge is another unheralded player who has been burning it up. I have no idea how long he will stay this hot but he has been one of the better players to own especially if you have him filling in your Catching position.

But both of these players should now be owned. Who is out there available? Look at your Free Agent list. Sort it by points if your league offers that option. If not, sort by RBIs and see who is at the top. Are they outperforming your player(s) at that position? Sort next by Runs and then SB. If your team is power Short you can also sort by Home Runs BUT the RBI sort should have given you those HR hitters also.

In Pitching I always sort by Strikeouts. And I then look at the pitchers who are striking out a lot of batters AND have either a good WHIP or good ERA - preferably both. Eventually a pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters and has a good (low) WHIP and ERA will get their share of wins or saves. If I am choosing between two similar pitchers, I choose the one that has the better offense behind them. This year that has been Toronto. One Pitcher who is worth a look (I grabbed him) is the Blue Jays Scott Richmond. His 2 Wins are nice but what entices me is his K/9 ratio and his low WHIP and ERA. He plays for a team that currently is hitting and scoring as well as any team. So he is a "pick up". Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros also has a great k/9 and a great WHIP and ERA but the Astros are not giving him any runs. If he pitched for the Blue Jays this year he'd be undefeated probably. I still like Wandy but right now I'd expect Scott to get more wins of the 2. Also Justin Masterson should be owned. Washington's Jordon Zimmermann should be owned or watched closely. He has already given me 2 wins and I expect him to only get better.

SP I like who haven't performed well yet are Liriano, Verlander and Kershaw. Ok Kershaw has had the 1 spectacular game that he followed by 2 duds. Liriano and Verlander have been victims of too many walks and too many home runs. I am holding both and looking for a turn around as they get "into the groove".

RP to watch - Marmol in Chicago and R. Soriano in Atlanta. IF they are ever given the closer role they will be worth owning. Until then I would watch them. IF Toronto's Scott Downs is still available in your league, he shouldn't be. Grab Him!