Saturday, August 2, 2008

Drew Brees goes in 1st Round of Draft

According to mockdraftcentral the average draft position of New Orleans' Saints' QB Drew Brees is 30.87 with a highest draft position of 20 and a low of 40. WELL that sure changed tonight as he went #7 in my fantasy football draft on fleaflicker. I should know, I was the one who drafted him with the seventh pick. Why did I draft him so high? A couple of reasons.

One reason is that I think Drew Brees may be the best fantasy QB this season. Yes better than Brady, better than Peyton and better than Romo (although I drafted Romo also). Last season Brees was second only to Brady in passing yards with 4,423 yards to Brady's 4,806. It is very possible if not probable that Brees will pass for at least 4,400 yards again this year as his receiving corp has improved with the addition of TE Jeremy Shockey and a healthy 2nd year WR Robert Meachem. Shockey should also result in more clear space for RB Reggie Bush.

Brees also led the NFL last season in pass attempts (652) and pass completions (440). He also threw for 28 TDs (but 18 INTs). I expect Brees to be better this season than last when he had a very slow start. I also look for his TDs to increase (only passing stat Romo bested Brees last season - Romo had 36).

Anyway my second reason I drafted Brees 7th was the nature of the league and my draft position coupled with mock draft results. This league starts: 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DST and 2 Utility slots (can be any position). There are 8 teams and my draft position was 7. All of the Elite RBs are taken before I get a chance so I could either take an elite WR, a Top 5 QB or a second tier RB. I did 3 mock drafts which simulated our draft. In the first 2 I took a RB and QB in the first 2 rounds and ended up with a mediocre team at the end. In the Third I took Brady in the first and the computer had the person behind me grab Brees. I did the draft again and drafted Brees first and the computer took Randy Moss 8th and a RB 9th leaving me Tom Brady. In each of the mock drafts, the computer had Romo going first among the QBs (before my position at 7). In the 2 mocks when I took QB-QB in the first 2 rounds, I did much better. The reality struck me. QBs were a premium in this draft because of its format. So I drafted Brees first knowing I would get either Romo, Palmer or Big Ben with the 10th pick. I got Romo.

My draft ended up as:
4 QBS out of 4 allowed:

QB Drew Brees - 1.7
QB Tony Romo - 2.2
QB Jason Campbell (a surprise he was available in Rd 9 -- 9.7
QB Brett Favre - worth a later pick just in case he plays --20.2

5 RBS out of 6 allowed:

RB Darren McFadden - 3.7
RB Jonathan Stewart - 6.2
RB Tommy Jones - 8.2
RB Brandon Jacobs - 10.2
RB Chris Johnson - 15.7

7 WRS out of 7 allowed

WR Andre Johnson - 4.2
WR T. Houshmandzadeh - 5.7 I was shocked he was still on the board in the 5th
WR S. Holmes - 7.7
WR S. Moss - 14.2
WR L. Coles - 16.2
WR B. Johnson - 17.7
WR A. Bryant - 19.2

2 TEs out of 3 allowed

TE J. Shockey - 11.7
TE V. Davis - 12.2

1 K out of 3 allowed

K Gould - 21.7

and 2 DSt out of 3 allowed

DST Seattle - 13.7
DST Saints - 18.2

Total roster is 21 players with 8 being on the bench.

After the draft I dropped Antonio Bryant (who I like as a sleeper) because I though my WRS were strong and my RBS "iffy". I replaced him with Miami RB Ricky Williams who the Dolphins are proclaiming as their best player in camp. With Ronnie Brown coming off an ACL injury, adding Ricky made sense to me.

Darren McFadden was my 3rd pick because my mocks showed he would be gone before I got another chance in Rd 5, and I needed a home run threat since the league has bonuses not only for yards but long runs. Being from Arkansas I really like DMAC's chances this season in Oakland. He is fast and strong. If he can avoid injury, he will be a Top 10 RB this season if not in the Top 5. He is also a good receiver and can even throw (the UA used him as a QB at times). He is a threat to score anytime he touches the ball from anywhere on the field. Chris Johnson in Tennessee may be the only RB faster than McFadden. That is why I grabbed Johnson also.

Why did I take both Shockey and Davis at TE when they both have the same BYE week? Well I didn't know at the time both had week 9 Byes but I would have taken them both anyway. Both are potential breakout candidates at TE. If only 1 breaks out, I'll drop the other. They were the only TEs I wanted left on the board.

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