Saturday, April 17, 2021

Hold or Fold?

 MLB Fantasy Baseball 2021 - Hold 'em or fold 'em?

"You've got to know when to hold 'em;

know when to fold 'em;

know when to walk away;

know when to run."

as "the Gambler" lyrics go is also true for Fantasy Sports.  Do you hold on to the start you drafted or drop him for someone who is hot and on the waiver wire?  Do you trade him?  

In one league, a manager dropped Boston's Alex Verdugo after the first week to grab Cubs SP Trevor Williams off the waiver wire.  In my opinion that was too quick but now we are preparing for week 4 of the season.  Is it still too quick?  The early bird gets the worm, after all.  

I grabbed his dropped Verdugo to strengthen my week OF replacing Tatis who went on the IR.  Now Tatis is back, I offered to trade Yoan Moncada and Mike Yastrzemski for Toronto's George Springer who is currently on IR.  I have 3 star 3B in Moncado, Devers and Suarez so in essence I am trading Moncado for Springer.  With Tatis back, I must drop a player and currently that would be Yastrzemski since LAA's Jared Walsh qualifies as OF now and Dodger's Chris Taylor has been hot.  That left Met's Dominic Smith or Yastrzemski to drop.  Smith qualifies at 1B and OF and projects about the same for points.  So I offered to trade for Springer who, once healthy, should anchor my OF in that league.

Making those snap decisions can make or break your fantasy season.  That crystal ball that says this break off is for real or this isn't a slump, it's a real fall.  There is no way to say who is right or wrong except time and time is a dear teacher.

Cincinnati's Tyler Naquin jumped out to the best stats of his career.  Some managers jumped to claim him.  I'm in a league where the opposing manager did that and it's a weekly lineup.  This week, Naquin has provided him -0.5 points while the stud he drafted but sat this week M. Ozuna has 15.5 points so far but is on his bench.

What about Baddoo?  Is his hot start for real?  Or will he fade?

CJ Cron?  Off to a slow start in Colorado.  Hold or fold?

Joc Pederson?  Hold or Fold?


Jazz Chisholm (MIA)?  Grab or not?

Luke Weaver (SP ARI) Grab or not?

These are the decisions that will end up winning someone a championship.  Guessing right.  It could also cost someone a championship - guessing wrong.

My advice is to hold the true studs even when they are down but constantly evaluate your team versus the waiver wire.  If you have a fringe hitter or pitcher such as Joc Pederson, you should consider dropping them for someone who is hot especially if you think their hot streak is for real.  But keep the player you drop on your radar - you can grab them back if they heat up if now one claims them first like I did Verdugo.

It's a game of hit or miss.  To win, you need to hit more often than miss OR at least hit at the right time.

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