Hold or Fold?

 MLB Fantasy Baseball 2021 - Hold 'em or fold 'em?

"You've got to know when to hold 'em;

know when to fold 'em;

know when to walk away;

know when to run."

as "the Gambler" lyrics go is also true for Fantasy Sports.  Do you hold on to the start you drafted or drop him for someone who is hot and on the waiver wire?  Do you trade him?  

In one league, a manager dropped Boston's Alex Verdugo after the first week to grab Cubs SP Trevor Williams off the waiver wire.  In my opinion that was too quick but now we are preparing for week 4 of the season.  Is it still too quick?  The early bird gets the worm, after all.  

I grabbed his dropped Verdugo to strengthen my week OF replacing Tatis who went on the IR.  Now Tatis is back, I offered to trade Yoan Moncada and Mike Yastrzemski for Toronto's George Springer who is currently on IR.  I have 3 star 3B in Moncado, Devers and Suarez so in essence I am trading Moncado for Springer.  With Tatis back, I must drop a player and currently that would be Yastrzemski since LAA's Jared Walsh qualifies as OF now and Dodger's Chris Taylor has been hot.  That left Met's Dominic Smith or Yastrzemski to drop.  Smith qualifies at 1B and OF and projects about the same for points.  So I offered to trade for Springer who, once healthy, should anchor my OF in that league.

Making those snap decisions can make or break your fantasy season.  That crystal ball that says this break off is for real or this isn't a slump, it's a real fall.  There is no way to say who is right or wrong except time and time is a dear teacher.

Cincinnati's Tyler Naquin jumped out to the best stats of his career.  Some managers jumped to claim him.  I'm in a league where the opposing manager did that and it's a weekly lineup.  This week, Naquin has provided him -0.5 points while the stud he drafted but sat this week M. Ozuna has 15.5 points so far but is on his bench.

What about Baddoo?  Is his hot start for real?  Or will he fade?

CJ Cron?  Off to a slow start in Colorado.  Hold or fold?

Joc Pederson?  Hold or Fold?

or 

Jazz Chisholm (MIA)?  Grab or not?

Luke Weaver (SP ARI) Grab or not?

These are the decisions that will end up winning someone a championship.  Guessing right.  It could also cost someone a championship - guessing wrong.

My advice is to hold the true studs even when they are down but constantly evaluate your team versus the waiver wire.  If you have a fringe hitter or pitcher such as Joc Pederson, you should consider dropping them for someone who is hot especially if you think their hot streak is for real.  But keep the player you drop on your radar - you can grab them back if they heat up if now one claims them first like I did Verdugo.

It's a game of hit or miss.  To win, you need to hit more often than miss OR at least hit at the right time.

Aches and Pains - MLB Fantasy IR

 It didn't take long.

Before the season even started you had some key players placed on IR; many at the last moment which created havoc trying to get rosters ready.

SP Carlos Carrasco NYM wasn't added until after the season began.

NYY 1B Luke Voit was added on opening day.

Tor SP Robbie Ray was added on Opening Day

KC SS  Adalberto Mondesi was added just before opening day.

SD SP Dinelson Lamet - added after Opening Day

SD OF Trent Grisham was added after Opening Day

TB RP Nick Anderson was added just before Opening Day.

The above are ALL players I have on my fantasy teams.  Players I had to replace from Waivers after the season began.  Yahoo Sports only allows 6 adds a week.  That was OK if it applied to the shortened 4 game 1st week BUT Yahoo applies it to the first 11 games instead of giving a fresh 6 adds for this week.  I'm out of adds in 1 league in part because I expected Yahoo to renew the adds with a new week.  Hmmm

Now this week has seen:

LAD SP / RP Tony Gonsolin added 

BAL  3B  Ke'Bryan Hayes added

SD SS and Top Fantasy Draft Pick Fernando Tatis is added

My fantasy team is full of walking wounded.

LAD Utility Player Chris Taylor is hobbled and listed as DTD which means you can't rely on him.

This is one reason I dislike playing in leagues that freeze your lineup for the week once play starts - my CBS Sports Points League for example.  A player gets injured or a covid19 event causes a team to postpone and you are still stuck, unable to change anything.  For that reason I won't play CBS Sports leagues in the future.  I want daily lineup leagues.

Week 1 Recap; Week 2 alert

 Week 1 is in the book - sort of

How did week 1 go?  

Starting pitching and some elite hitters were definitely NOT in the groove yet while some lesser known bats were alive.

In my CBS Points league, Fernando Tatis who was a #1 pick by many including me started the season with 6 strikeouts.  Entering yesterday, he had only 2 points but that was better than SF's Mike Yastrzemski who finished the week with 0 but that is better than a negative score.  I managed to barely outpoint my competition who had 3 players sidelines by covid19 while I had 2.

Week 1 also saw Washington Nationals and New York Mets sidelines because several National players tested positive for Covid.

Advice for week 2 is to avoid National players even as they are scheduled to start playing Atlanta tomorrow (Tuesday).  That presumes no other positive test.  11 players for Washington will be out for the week BUT Washington hasn't indicated who they are but many are starters like Kyle Schwarber.  

Atlanta players on the other hand probably get a boost this week since they will be playing a depleted Washington team especially if Starting Pitchers are included in the 11 players who can't play.

In my week 1, I am ahead in 2 of my 3 Yahoo HTH leagues while trailing in 1 (3 vs 6).  That one has the two teams neck and neck in almost every stat category.  Yahoo leagues will extend week 1 to include this week so all 3 contests continue this week.

I have 2 starting pitchers - Carlos Carrasco and D. Lamet on IL in that league and picked up Ryan Yarbrough of TB who pitched well but whom I dropped and picked up Brady Singer (KC) who didn't do so well and gave up a couple of homeruns.  Tony Gonsolin was placed on the IR yesterday so I am back on the waiver wire this morning trying to add Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi so my team can compete with my opponent on pitching.  I'm hoping Adbert Alzolay (CHC) gets a start this week and hits sleeper status.  Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Civale are my 2 starting Pitchers who remain active from my original draft.  

In my ESPN Roto league, I was dead last after day 1 but bounced back to finish in 2nd place at the end of week 1.  My Yahoo Roto league is my worst so far as I am in 7th out of 12 entering week 2.

DAILY League - Lineup Tip

 Setting my Lineup - Head to Head leagues - One Tip

Do as I say and not as I do?  I missed using my lineup trick yesterday because I got busy in my yard and lost track of time.  It ended up not mattering BUT over a course of a fantasy season, this one lineup trick could add crucial points and be the difference in winning or losing.

So what is the tip?

You will notice in the screenshot, I have Maikel Franco starting as Utility.  That is my mistake.  Not playing Franco BUT having him occupy the Utility Spot when he has an early game.  Franco only qualifies at 3B and Utility.  Since his game had started (yesterday), he was locked into Utility.  I couldn't move any other player there.  So what happens if Suarez doesn't play at 3:10 pm?  I could lose a hitting position for the day.  

In this type of scenario, I like to MOVE the player whose game starts early into their Position and the player starting later into the Utility position.  So here I should have moved Franco to 3B and Suarez to Utility.  Then if the later games gets postponed for bad weather OR the player sits that day, I can put another player into the Utility spot such as Tapia who is an Outfielder.  

Since I had Dylon Moore playing OF and he was eligible to play 3B, I wouldn't have been hurt IF Suarez ended up not playing.  I would have moved Moore to 3B and Tapia to OF.  

In hindsight, I should have played Tapia.  He homered in his game and I had him sitting.  That's fantasy baseball.  Sometimes you win; sometimes you lose.  You set your lineups based on your best "forecast" but sometimes good players don't play well and sometimes players for whom you have lower expectations outperform those expectations.

Hope my lineup tip helps you in the fantasy season.

POSTPONED: Opening Day and 2 games are already postponed

 Baltimore @ Boston is postponed and

New York Mets @ Washington  

The Washington postponment is more worrisome since it is possibly due to Covid19.

It seems Baltimore / Boston is weather related.

Get those lineups especially any weekly lineups adjusted.

This was a major problem for me last season since I was living in China.  News like this would be in the middle of the night for me often after I was already sleeping.  At least now I am back in the US, I can make last moment adjustments IF my roster has the flexibility.  In one league I only have 3 OutField eligible players so I lose 1 - Dominic Smith - today.

Trouble in Paradise - Injuries in MLB 2021 already

 MLB Injuries impact fantasy teams

A week before the 2021 season starts, White Sox's Eloy Jimenez ruptures a pectoral muscle trying to make a catch in the outfield; a 4 Category start is now out probably for the season.  For those who haven't drafted their fantasy team yet, you need to drop Eloy from your draft list OR take him in the last rounds as an IR stash in case he can return before the end of the season.  A healthy Eloy provides Power with average so HRS, RBIs, Runs and Batting Ave / On-Base Percentage.  He didn't steal bases.

Tampa Bay's elite relief pitcher Nick Anderson suffered a partial tear of his elbow ligament and will be sidelined for months if he is able to heal without surgery (the current plan);

Toronto's Kirby Yates - a Closer - underwent Tommy John Surgery so is out for 2021

For those of us who have already drafted one of these players, it is to the waiver wire we must look for answers.  I have Eloy in one league and I have Nick Anderson in 1 league.  Eloy I chose to drop rather than wait for him to be designated as IR and replace him.  I have no faith in his ability to recover this season and return healthy.   Nick I am waiting for the Fantasy Team to show him as IR and I will place him on IR to see if he can recover - I'm not holding my breath though.

I never drafted Kirby Yates - I wasn't sold that his skills would let him keep the Closer job in Toronto.  Jordon Romano has the skills to take over as Closer though Toronto may use a committee.

Before you replace your injured star, take a look at what your team needs are.  Just because Eloy was a power bat and outfield doesn't mean you should replace him with a power bat or outfielder.  Look to see where your team, minus the player you are replacing, is weakest.  Maybe you need a Starting Pitcher?  Or a player to give you Stolen Bases.  Evaluate your team before you choose a replacement.

Next, evaluate the players on the waiver wire.  Often I will simply look to get the BEST Player Available, regardless of position.  Other times I will seek to fill a hole.  In the case of Nick Anderson, I have enough Relief Pitching without him.  In fact, Diego Castillo may get more save opportunities now since he won't be sharing those with Nick.  So for that league I will either take another Starting Pitcher OR a hitter.  I'm still evaluating until Nick is listed as IR.

In the league with Eloy, I also drafted NY Mets Starting Pitcher Carlos Carrasco who injured his hamstring.  Since he was an early pick as a SP, and not yet designated for IR, I opted to " You have successfully created a waiver claim for Tony Gonsolin dropping Eloy Jiménez"   Whenever the League designates Carlos is eligible for IR, I will replace him - maybe with another arm but maybe with another bat.  

Whether you chose a "safer"  pitcher or hitter off of waivers or take a chance on a younger player with upside, that will depend on the player you lost to injury and the team you have.  With the season starting next week, if you have already drafted and are replacing an early round pick such as Eloy, you may want to "swing for the fences" by choosing an unproven player who has the potential to break out this season OR a former elite player who has fallen such as Ranger's Kris Davis - once a 40 HR threat.  One potential player that may be on your waiver wire still is Rockies OF/2B Garrett Hampson.  In many leagues he went undrafted.  He has 20/30 potential and had a very good spring training.  

Whether tt

Last week of preseason - moving up; moving down

 Moving Up, Moving Down, On the Radar

It's March 23 and opening Day of Major League Baseball is just a week away.

Many Fantasy Teams will be drafting this week.  I have a draft today - 12 Team HTH on Yahoo and another on Saturday - CBS Sports Points League.  And I will do an autodraft at some point this week and maybe a Yahoo Rotisserie League or another Points League.  Drafting is half the fun of playing Fantasy Sports.

For today's league draft I am focusing on Starting pitching and hitting, willing to punt saves.  I want to compare how my teams do (1) Punting wins versus (2) punting saves.  So today I will go for Aces early in the draft wanting High Level Starting Pitchers in the early rounds - 2 out of the first 5 rounds, 1 in the first 2.

Back on Topic - who is moving up, down in MLB based on Spring Preseason?

Moving Up

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - both as a pitcher and a hitter.  His preseason indicates he may be back to form which means as a pitcher you are getting a potential ace and as a hitter a 20/20   0.280   with 90 Runs, 90 to 100 RBIs candidate.  I'm bullish on Ohtani now.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) - Sandy has quietly been a superb SP and keeps getting better.  If he pitched for the Dodgers or Boston for example, he'd pick drafted much higher.  In Miami he is overlooked.  Miami has several pitchers worth drafting higher than they have been.  Sandy is slipping between the cracks.

Eduardo Rodriguez - (BOS) Eduardo missed 2020 because of health reasons but it had nothing to do with his arm.  It was Cardio related, if I remember correctly, tied to Covid19.  He seems to be healthy in 2021 and has already been hitting 100+ mph on the radar.  If he can get some run support in Boston, he could surprise in 2021.

Charlie Morton (ATL) - Charlie switched leagues.  I've discounted Charlie some because of his age but once I have 2 quality Starting Pitchers, having Charlie on my team wouldn't be bad.  I passed him in my first drafts but his preseason results has moved him up my draft board.

Domingo German (NYY) - Domingo has been on Fantasy Radars for a couple of years.  He seems to have dropped off this year but he has had a very good preseason.  Certainly worth drafting once you have your Starting Pitching base.

Eugenia Suarez (CIN) - Eugenio makes this list NOT based on his preseason hitting BUT based on the fact the Reds may play him at Shortstop making him eligible at SS and 3B.  I like players who have multi-position eligibility so the position versatility will move him up a little (not a lot).

Andres Gimenez (CLE) - It appears Andres will be the starting shortstop for Cleveland.  In his short Major League Career, Andres has shown the ability to get on base and steal bases.  With regular playing time, he could easily surpass 20 SBs this season.  Where he hits in the lineup (Top?  Bottom?) will determine his value but he is now on my draft board in the later rounds.  If Cleveland hits him at the Top of the order, he will be a steal.

Moving Down - All for Injuries / Injury concerns

Carlos Carrasco (NYM) - 

Nate Pearson (TOR)

Jose Leclerc (TEX)

Kirby Yates (TOR)

Zac Gallen (ARI)

On The Radar

Jonathan India (CIN) - Jonathan may have played his way into the starting job at second base for Cincinnati.  He has the potential to steal bases and score runs with some power (and playing in Cincinnati helps the power).  Don't be surprised if he has a 15 HR season with 15 to 20 SBs.  If he hits at the top of the order, he should score runs, lots of runs.

Bobby Witt, Jr (KC) - He will start the season in the minors but keep him on your watch list.  Don't be surprised if the Royals call him up in June to play 2B.

Tarik Skubal (DET) - He is one of a couple of promising Pitching Prospects for Detroit who saw limited action last season.  This season he is focusing on mixing his pitches more utilizing his offspeed stuff to help his heat.

Sam Hilliard (COL) - Has 4 or 5 tools - just needs playing time and to cut his strike out rate.  Playing in Colorado, he could be a sleeper this season.  Power + Speed.

New World Wonders 2 - 2nd Yahoo Head to Head League draft

 New World Wonders 2

I participated in my second fantasy baseball draft of 2021 and I liked the results better.  No one knows what the future holds but I have a better mix to start the season.  Again this was a 12 team, head to head league on Yahoo Sports.

I was drafting 11th out of 12 which means having 2 picks close together and then a long wait.  With pick 11, I took Jose Ramirez - 3 B with Cleveland and with pick 14 I grabbed another 3rd baseman - Manny Machado who is also eligible at SS.  Pick 3?  I took Boston's Xander Bogaerts - another SS so with 3 picks I have 2 Third Basemen and 2 Shortstops.  With my 4th pick I took NYY D.J. LeMahieu who is eligible at 1, 2 and 3.  

So to start the draft I stuck to my game plan of taking hitters the first 4 picks before taking a pitcher AND I gave the benefit of the doubt to players who had multi-position eligibility.  I love that flexibility in HTH leagues.  I didn't pick a player because of his multi-player eligibility  (in other words I didn't take a worst player just because they had eligibility at more than 1 position) but if it was close, it was the difference maker.

My plan was to take a Starting Pitcher at round 5 but I deviated and took Josh Hader with pick 59 and Liam Hendriks with pick 62 setting up my Closers early.  I decided I could find more starting pitchers late than reliable closers.

With pick 83 (7th pick) I took NYM SP Carlos Carrasco.  Switching from American League to National League and playing home games at Citifield, his stats could be very good.  

In the 8th Round I took BlueJays versatile player, Lourdes Gurriel, Jr who is eligible at 2B and OF.  I took him as the best OutFielder available for 5x5 fantasy - he gives me power, runs, RBIs and a chance for SBs.

My next pick went SP with D. Lamet who has some of the best stuff in MLB.  The only issue is can he stay healthy.  I like him this year because the Padres Bullpen is loaded with 4 pitchers who have closer experience.  That could lead to extra WINS for Lamet this season.  He just needs to take a lead into the 6th inning.

My next pick was Mike Moustakas of Cincy.  I think he will rebound this year.  He is playing in a Hitters park in Cincinnati and he has power.  If he can hit .265 or higher, he will give me a lot of HRs, RBIs and Runs.  He won't give me SBs.  With LeMahieu on my team, I can afford to have some hitters who don't hit for average.  I'm hoping Moustakas can carry his weight on average anyway but if he hits 40 HRS with a .225 average, I can absorb it.

Round 11, I took what I saw as the best available - Kevin Gausman - SP with San Francisco.  If he was picthing for a team like the Dodgers, he would probably be a very early draft pick.  He will give me a lot of Ks and hopefully maintain a WHIP and ERA that is more than competitive.  The question is, will his offense score runs to let him earn those Ws?

Round 12 saw me take Dylan Moore of Seattle.  When he was healthy is 2020, he produced across the board.  Here I added him to make me competitive in SBs.  

Round 13, I took Miami hurler Sixto Sanchez.  I picked him up in 2020 and he was fantastic.  Another year of experience and I'm hoping he pitches like an SP 1.  

Round 14 saw me take a chance on Chicago's Ian Happ.  He is expected to leadoff for the Cubs which means that he could score a ton of runs in addition to hitting 25 or more HRs.

Round 15, I took a chance on another Cub - Craig Kimbrel.  He was once the ACE closer in MLB and then took a tumble when he left Boston and joined the Cubs.  BUT he resurged last season and looked back to form.  If that second half of 2020 relief pitcher is the one in 2021, I got a steal.  I'll keep an eye on his stats and gran Rowan Wick if Kimbrel stumbles (or try to grab him).

This gave me the 3 Closers I wanted on my pitching staff.  With 3, I should be able to win Saves most weeks and hopefully compete for WHIP and ERA.  

in Round 16, pick 182, I took LAA SP S. Ohtani.  He has looked "back" to form in early Spring Season games.  I saw little risk in taking him as my 5th Starting Pitcher.  If he is back to form, he will return SP 1 value.

Round 17 and 18, I took hitting.  In 17, I went with Mariner Prospect, J. Kelenic.  He figures to give you across the board production IF he gets playing time.  I consider J. Walsh here but he doesn't have the SB upside of Kelenic.

Round 18 I went ahead and took Rockies 1B CJ Chron.  If I only play him when they play in Colorado, he should hit enough HRs to justify the pick.  Don't be surprised if he hits over 40HRs this season and with a batting average of 0.250 or better.

Round 19, I took another potential 35 - 40 HR hitter in Joc Pederson.  He is with the Cubs now and just 2 years ago hit almost 40 HRs.  So far in Spring Training he has been hitting well.

Round 20, I took Diego Castillo of TB.  Diego qualifies as SP and RP.  That lets me picth him in a SP slot if I have a lineup without 2 SPs scheduled.  He will also be one of the 3 RPs in Tampa Bay closing.  

Pick 21, I took Texas Ranger Isiah Kiner-Falefa whom I have been targeting in my drafts.  He is Catcher eligible but playing SS and batting 3rd for the Rangers.  In 2020 he had 8 SBs, 28 runs and hit 0.280 in a shortened season.  I expect him to perform much better than Yahoo forecasts so long as he hits 3rd and hits 0.275 or better.  Don't be surprised if he swipes 20 or more bases and scores 75 runs.  I figure he is good for 10 Homeruns and maybe 70 RBIs.  Time will tell.  

My final 2 picks saw me take Injured pitchers, Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard.  Why not?  I can place them on the IR and take 2 players off of waivers.

Initially I have chosen to take Severino (NYY SP who is also on IR) and Jon Berti who is in my opinion undervalued.  If I win both off waivers, I'll place Severino on IR (there are 4 IR slots) and take another pitcher.  I'm still debating which pitcher to add.

One change I made for this draft was creating a draft sheet in Numbers (Apple's Spreadsheet) in which I could track the hitting stats - HRs, RBIs, Runs and SBs - so at a glance I could see how my team was faring overall based on projections.  

My roster after the draft (before adding players from Waivers to replace the 2 IR).

Have fun playing Fantasy Baseball in 2021

2021 MLB PreDraft - Know your League Settings

 Fantasy Sportsaholic MLB Draft Prep

My first 2021 draft is set on Yahoo for Saturday, March 6

Remember I said it was important to “know” the league settings. 

This league has what I consider a pretty basic lineup - C 1B 2B 3B SS OF OF OF and 2 Utility Players.   They also allow for 5 bench players and importantly 4 Injured.  Last year with Covid I felt at times I didn’t have enough IL spots.  4 is good.  2 is iffy.  0 is a nightmare.

Now go to settings (under League Tab) and check the scoring and other information.

The league is head to head with daily lineups - I prefer daily lineups.

No Maximum for acquisitions on the season BUT there is a weekly maximum of 6 - that will allow some weekly changes but not full streaming of pitchers for example.  

Note also that the pitching requirement of 20 minimum innings pitched each week.  That means you probably need a couple of pitchers each week who start and pitch 5 innings each.  Plan for 3 Starting pitchers minimum is better.  

Note the “allow injured players from waivers to go directly to IL” is NO.  That means IF I want to add an IL eligible player to my roster (stash them for later), I need an empty spot on my roster first.  I may have another player who is IL eligible whom I can move to IL first and then add the new player, and then move them to IL or I may have to drop a player first.  Some Team Managers will drop very good players to waivers when they go on IL.  Some I will take knowing they will make a difference for my team after coming off IL.

 

Now notice the Scoring - again this is now 5x5 scoring that is more or common (but not every league follows it so always check your scoring).  R+HR+RBIs+SBs form the core of the hitter stats along with Avg.  

Pitching is also 5 - W, S, Ks, ERA and WHIP.

So now as I consider players to draft I am looking at my combined 4 (R+HRS+RBIS+SBS) as my tool.  I want players who give me the highest total BUT also need to keep an eye open for SBs and Avg.  For Pitching I am watching WHIP and K/9 while keeping ERA in mind but if their WHIP is good the ERA should also be good.  I don’t focus on Wins but try to draft a couple of SP1 (Pitchers who are the first tier pitcher for their team) plus 3 closers then get high k/9 low Whip pitchers even if they are not SPs or Closers.  Often a relief pitcher who gets 2 or 3 innings or even a setup pitcher who just pitches 1 inning will pick up wins while giving you Ks and low WHIP.  If yo have 3 good closers on your pitching staff, you can win 4 of the 5 Pitching stats each week and win your league.

Now you know your League Settings, it’s time to arrange your Draft List - Do NOT rely on the Default setting.

Next Blog - setting your Pre-Draft Rankings.