Hold or Fold?

 MLB Fantasy Baseball 2021 - Hold 'em or fold 'em?

"You've got to know when to hold 'em;

know when to fold 'em;

know when to walk away;

know when to run."

as "the Gambler" lyrics go is also true for Fantasy Sports.  Do you hold on to the start you drafted or drop him for someone who is hot and on the waiver wire?  Do you trade him?  

In one league, a manager dropped Boston's Alex Verdugo after the first week to grab Cubs SP Trevor Williams off the waiver wire.  In my opinion that was too quick but now we are preparing for week 4 of the season.  Is it still too quick?  The early bird gets the worm, after all.  

I grabbed his dropped Verdugo to strengthen my week OF replacing Tatis who went on the IR.  Now Tatis is back, I offered to trade Yoan Moncada and Mike Yastrzemski for Toronto's George Springer who is currently on IR.  I have 3 star 3B in Moncado, Devers and Suarez so in essence I am trading Moncado for Springer.  With Tatis back, I must drop a player and currently that would be Yastrzemski since LAA's Jared Walsh qualifies as OF now and Dodger's Chris Taylor has been hot.  That left Met's Dominic Smith or Yastrzemski to drop.  Smith qualifies at 1B and OF and projects about the same for points.  So I offered to trade for Springer who, once healthy, should anchor my OF in that league.

Making those snap decisions can make or break your fantasy season.  That crystal ball that says this break off is for real or this isn't a slump, it's a real fall.  There is no way to say who is right or wrong except time and time is a dear teacher.

Cincinnati's Tyler Naquin jumped out to the best stats of his career.  Some managers jumped to claim him.  I'm in a league where the opposing manager did that and it's a weekly lineup.  This week, Naquin has provided him -0.5 points while the stud he drafted but sat this week M. Ozuna has 15.5 points so far but is on his bench.

What about Baddoo?  Is his hot start for real?  Or will he fade?

CJ Cron?  Off to a slow start in Colorado.  Hold or fold?

Joc Pederson?  Hold or Fold?

or 

Jazz Chisholm (MIA)?  Grab or not?

Luke Weaver (SP ARI) Grab or not?

These are the decisions that will end up winning someone a championship.  Guessing right.  It could also cost someone a championship - guessing wrong.

My advice is to hold the true studs even when they are down but constantly evaluate your team versus the waiver wire.  If you have a fringe hitter or pitcher such as Joc Pederson, you should consider dropping them for someone who is hot especially if you think their hot streak is for real.  But keep the player you drop on your radar - you can grab them back if they heat up if now one claims them first like I did Verdugo.

It's a game of hit or miss.  To win, you need to hit more often than miss OR at least hit at the right time.

"twas the Day before Opening Day

 and Covid19 took 5 Nats away

ESPN reports that the Washington Nationals had a player test positive and 4 others who had contact with the one who tested positive quarantined.

This news is on the eve of Opening Day / Opening week.

It is one reason I came to HATE weekly lineups.  You have no control when MLB shuts down a team.  Your roster is set.  You are stuck.

At least with a daily lineup, you can make adjustments - you lose one day or maybe 2 depending on how flexible your roster is.

I think I have a single league that uses weekly lineups.  I didn't realize it before I signed up.

In the real world you wouldn't be stuck with players who couldn't play.  It would be nice IF weekly lineup leagues would make an exception for injuries or illnesses like Covid.  

Anyway - beware as you set your lineups for the first day / week.

They haven't released WHO the 5 players are so check the NATS starting lineup before setting your own.  

Opening Day - tomorrow and already snags in the system.

 So April 1 is tomorrow; and it's not just April's Fool day but also MLB Opening Day.

Are you ready?

I'm not.

I'm ready for the season to begin but my MLB Fantasy Teams are not yet ready.

It's NOT my fault.

For some reason (unknown to me), some injured players are not yet designated as IR so I have been unable to place them on the IR and choose a replacement from the waiver wire.

NYY Luke Voit will start the season on the IR yet in my Yahoo League he is simply shown as DTD

The same is true of NYM SP Carlos Carrasco who is expected to miss maybe 6 weeks because of an injured hamstring.  While I have Voit in a single league and it is a Roto, I have Carrasco in several leagues and they are HTH.

That means I will lose some value right off the bat (nice idiom) because I won't have a replacement for some players until after the season begins.  That's life.

Updated 7 pm CT  

Voit has finally been placed on IR; a waiver claim was made for Trevor Rogers (SP MIA) since TOR SP Robbie Ray was placed on the IR by Toronto for his bruised elbow (he fell at home and bruised it; not baseball related).  I also made a claim for Maikel Franco to make up some power loss from Voit being on the IR.

As of my last check, CArrasco still hasn't been placed on the IR in my leagues.

Also Adalberto Mondesi - SS KC has been placed on the IR to begin the season.  I have high hopes of a breakout season from Mondesi - hopefully injuries won't be a recurring theme with him this season.

Last week of preseason - moving up; moving down

 Moving Up, Moving Down, On the Radar

It's March 23 and opening Day of Major League Baseball is just a week away.

Many Fantasy Teams will be drafting this week.  I have a draft today - 12 Team HTH on Yahoo and another on Saturday - CBS Sports Points League.  And I will do an autodraft at some point this week and maybe a Yahoo Rotisserie League or another Points League.  Drafting is half the fun of playing Fantasy Sports.

For today's league draft I am focusing on Starting pitching and hitting, willing to punt saves.  I want to compare how my teams do (1) Punting wins versus (2) punting saves.  So today I will go for Aces early in the draft wanting High Level Starting Pitchers in the early rounds - 2 out of the first 5 rounds, 1 in the first 2.

Back on Topic - who is moving up, down in MLB based on Spring Preseason?

Moving Up

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - both as a pitcher and a hitter.  His preseason indicates he may be back to form which means as a pitcher you are getting a potential ace and as a hitter a 20/20   0.280   with 90 Runs, 90 to 100 RBIs candidate.  I'm bullish on Ohtani now.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) - Sandy has quietly been a superb SP and keeps getting better.  If he pitched for the Dodgers or Boston for example, he'd pick drafted much higher.  In Miami he is overlooked.  Miami has several pitchers worth drafting higher than they have been.  Sandy is slipping between the cracks.

Eduardo Rodriguez - (BOS) Eduardo missed 2020 because of health reasons but it had nothing to do with his arm.  It was Cardio related, if I remember correctly, tied to Covid19.  He seems to be healthy in 2021 and has already been hitting 100+ mph on the radar.  If he can get some run support in Boston, he could surprise in 2021.

Charlie Morton (ATL) - Charlie switched leagues.  I've discounted Charlie some because of his age but once I have 2 quality Starting Pitchers, having Charlie on my team wouldn't be bad.  I passed him in my first drafts but his preseason results has moved him up my draft board.

Domingo German (NYY) - Domingo has been on Fantasy Radars for a couple of years.  He seems to have dropped off this year but he has had a very good preseason.  Certainly worth drafting once you have your Starting Pitching base.

Eugenia Suarez (CIN) - Eugenio makes this list NOT based on his preseason hitting BUT based on the fact the Reds may play him at Shortstop making him eligible at SS and 3B.  I like players who have multi-position eligibility so the position versatility will move him up a little (not a lot).

Andres Gimenez (CLE) - It appears Andres will be the starting shortstop for Cleveland.  In his short Major League Career, Andres has shown the ability to get on base and steal bases.  With regular playing time, he could easily surpass 20 SBs this season.  Where he hits in the lineup (Top?  Bottom?) will determine his value but he is now on my draft board in the later rounds.  If Cleveland hits him at the Top of the order, he will be a steal.

Moving Down - All for Injuries / Injury concerns

Carlos Carrasco (NYM) - 

Nate Pearson (TOR)

Jose Leclerc (TEX)

Kirby Yates (TOR)

Zac Gallen (ARI)

On The Radar

Jonathan India (CIN) - Jonathan may have played his way into the starting job at second base for Cincinnati.  He has the potential to steal bases and score runs with some power (and playing in Cincinnati helps the power).  Don't be surprised if he has a 15 HR season with 15 to 20 SBs.  If he hits at the top of the order, he should score runs, lots of runs.

Bobby Witt, Jr (KC) - He will start the season in the minors but keep him on your watch list.  Don't be surprised if the Royals call him up in June to play 2B.

Tarik Skubal (DET) - He is one of a couple of promising Pitching Prospects for Detroit who saw limited action last season.  This season he is focusing on mixing his pitches more utilizing his offspeed stuff to help his heat.

Sam Hilliard (COL) - Has 4 or 5 tools - just needs playing time and to cut his strike out rate.  Playing in Colorado, he could be a sleeper this season.  Power + Speed.

Mock Draft Results

Yahoo mock draft for a 12 team draft; Head to Head, 5x5

With my first draft of the season coming up tomorrow I joined a mock draft to test my idea of drafting hitters for the first 4 rounds, then taking a starting pitchers and 3 top closers.  I chose the middle position to test it out.  My results follow:

My first 9 picks were:

1.  Mookie Betts

2.  A. Mondesi

3.  Ozzie Albies

4.  W. Merrifield (I wanted to see my team if I took him.  With Mondesi drafted I probably would have                               gone Power bat here - maybe J. Abreu, M. Ozuna)

5.  T. Glascow

6.  J. Hader

7.  S. Gray

8.  J. Karinchak

9.  K. Jansen

This projects me to finish 4th according to Yahoo.  That would be based on points and this is HTH.  Plus I think it undervalues the playing time of many of the players I choose - note the projected ABs for players like Dominic Smith and Ke'Bryan Hayes both draft targets of mine.  I expect both to be daily players so the projected ABs of 431 and 428 are low in my opinion.  

I purposely took Chris Sale to test out which pitchers would still be left undrafted.  My plan tomorrow is to draft both Chris Sale and Noah Snydergaard and then place them on the IL and fill in from the waiver wire post draft.  

Most drafts from the 6th spot will give me Mike Trout rather than Mookie Betts.  I may look at adding Colorado OF Tapia to my lineup to give me more runs - one area this mock draft (with the ABS projected) show me being weak.

Now I need to test it again from a low draft position like 12.

Final preparations for MLB 2021 fantasy draft

Draft Tips and strategies

 So you have completed your initial draft list.  You have rearranged the league standard list into a list more aligned with your own ideas of this person should be drafted before this person.

Now it's time to make the final preparations for the draft.  A bad draft doesn't mean you should throw in the towel BUT a good draft makes winning easier.  So let's start with a good draft.

Mock Draft - doing a mock draft will help you have a successful real draft in fantasy sports.  I did several mock drafts at Yahoo Sports  using my predraft list and from different positions in the draft - early pick, middle pick and last pick.  The software graded my draft as a B which is OK with me because I disagree with some of their projections.

Hitting:

I sort my draft list using batting average and color code the results:

When I used actually statistics from 2020 - shortened Covid impacted season - I get a lot of hitters who hit well - Orange = >300; Dark Green = .290 and higher but also pink <0.250, yellow <0.270    I try to avoid hitters whose average is below 0.250 because avg is one of the 5 hitting stats and a couple of players below 0.250 means you will risk always losing that stat.  Instead I try to find hitters with similar profiles with better averages.  Preferably hitters who don't have yellow or pink colors.

I also sorted using Fantasypros projections for 2021.  There were only 4 hitters projected to hit above .300 and several hitters who had horrible 2020 seasons (in the pink) are projected to rebound in 2021.

Pitching:

I don't have the same metrics for pitching as I have for hitting.  For hitting I can use the Total 4 score (R, RBIs, HRs and Sbs) plus color coding.  This is especially good for points leagues.  In Head to head I must still maintain a sense of balance - do I have enough HRs?  Enough Sbs?  I want to win 3 out of 5 stats each week in hitting and 3 in pitching. 6 out of 10 = win.

So for pitching - wins, saves, strikeouts, WHIP and ERA.  I focus on getting a couple of pitchers who will be Starting Pitchers 1 or 2 on their teams who have good WHIP, ERA and Ks.  

I need 20 innings minimum so I focus more or Relief Pitching by trying to draft 4 closers.  If I get 4 quality Closers then I should win Saves, WHIP and ERA.  

With Starting Pitchers who give me high K/9 I may also win the K category and maybe even wins.  

So of the 8 pitching slots, I try for 3 SPs and 5 Relief Pitchers with at least 4 of those 5 being closers.  I then add 3 more pitchers for pitchers for the bench with at least 1 being a reliever who has Starting eligibility such as Seth Lugo or Diego Castillo.  The other 2 may be High Upside Starting Pitchers who have good K/9 and limited risk for ERA.  Elieser Hernandez from Miami is one such pitcher I am targeting late. 

Please NOTE:  If you are playing in a league that is points or Roto, these pitching tips won't work.  They are good for head to head.

NBA Hot Shots - week 9

Are you needing some help at PG or maybe in the trenches at PF or Center? Usually finding gems at these positions at this time of year is difficult. But there may just be a couple lurking in your fantasy league's pool.

Players such as Charlotte Bobcat Center Nazr Mohammed, Cleveland Cavalier Anderson Varejao, Milwaukee's Yi Jian, and Houston Rocket Luther Head were some of the players I highlighted on Screaming Sports this past Monday as players to grab if available. See Screaming Sports Post

A couple to add to the list are Washington Wizard Roger Mason who has been exceptional the past 3 games and Josh Boone of the New Jersey Nets. Boone has been in double figures the past 3 games and had no fewer than 8 rebounds. Not bad for a waiver wire grab here at the end of the year. He seems to have found favor in New Jersey and is getting the minutes.

Roger Mason has replaced Antonio Daniels who in turn replaced Gilbert Arenas. The past 2 games has seen him score 20 and 24 points respectively. He also has averaged 4.5 assists and 5 rebounds while playing over 40 minutes a game. He is 16 of 27 from the field and 7 of 14 from behind the arc (he was just 1 of 5 against Indiana but bounced back with 6 of 9 against Charlotte). He is also an excellent free throw shooter 90.9% on the season. As he gets the minutes, I expect his assists to increase.

I dropped Boone from my NBA Rotisserie league because someone dropped Yi this week after he had a poor outing. I say I dropped Boone. Actually I conditionally dropped him while making a waiver claim on Yi. I hope I am successful. I chose to drop Boone rather than Varejao because Josh has not proven to be a good free throw shooter and that is an area my NBA team is doing well. I consider Boone and Varejao to be similar in ability to give you 7 to 10 rebounds a night and about 10 to 15 points. I am holding onto Bargnani hoping he turns his season back around. The report is that he is tired from playing all summer.

Kiss of death?

Kiss of death?

I recommend them, and the next game they fall apart. What kind of fate is that? I recommended Marko Jaric and he had a good start last night. He had 4 points and 4 assists in the opening minutes. Then he sprained his ankle. I haven't heard how serious the sprain is but he didn't play anymore yesterday.

Louis Williams from Philadelphia saw a total of 9 minutes of PT. I haven't heard if that was injury related or not but 9 minutes isn't going to make anyone a fantasy play.

NHL

On happier news, Havlat is back in Chicago. In his first game back he scored 2 goals for the Blackhawks and yesterday had an assist on their first score against Phoenix. After that Byfuglien took over. Basically an unknown in fantasy hockey circles before last night, Byfuglien scored 3 goals and had an assist as the Blackhawks jumped out to an early 5-0 lead over the Coyotes.

To place that into perspective, before Friday he had 3 G, 1 Assist, -1, 11 PIM, 1 PPP and 20 SOG for 24.5 fan Pts. Friday he was a Plus 2 and had 5 shots on Goal and added 4 Penalty Minutes for good measure in addition to the 3 Goals (2 on PP) and assist. In my league that totals 19 fantasy points. Not a bad coming out party. I added him to my watch list since this was his first game skating with a new line. Maybe it is a foretaste of things to come. But I'm not going to grab him until I see more.

Parise gets the hat trick

Devils forward Zach Parise had his first hat trick on Friday night in a 4-0 win against the Montreal Canadiens. Parise scored a goal in each period and assisted on Brian Gionta's third period goal.

Atlanta recalls Goalie Kari Lehtonen Saturday from an AHL reconditioning assignment after missing 16 games with a groin injury. Kari started the season awful before the injury. However not only did teh Thrashers recall Lehtonen but he is starting at Goalie tonight for them. Needing a Starting Goalie, I added him by dropping Mike Smith. I won't get the benefit (or detriment) of Lehtonen until tomorrow. I now have him, Coyotes' Bryzgalov who had an awful game last night against Chicago and Montreal plattooner Huet as my 3 Goalies. Other than Goalie, I have a strong fantasy team with:

C Mike Ribeiro (Dal - C)
C Martin Straka (NYR - C,LW)
C Jason Williams (Chi - C,RW)
C Zach Parise (NJ - C,LW)

LW Evgeni Malkin (Pit - C,LW)
LW Ilya Kovalchuk (Atl - LW)

RW Martin Havlat (Chi - RW)
RW Justin Williams (Car - RW)
RW Martin Erat (Nsh - LW,RW)

D Bryan McCabe (Tor - D)
D Nicklas Lidstrom (Det - D)
D Brent Burns (Min - D)
D Shea Weber (Nsh - D)

We can play 2 Centers, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 Defensemen and 2 Goalies daily. Having players like Erat and all of my Centers other than Ribeiro able to play multiple positions helps. I am currently 4th out of 12 in my Yahoo Point league. With a little consistentcy at Goalie, I could get to #1.

NBA Assists

Looking for help with your NBA Fantasy team?  here are some players who may be sitting on your Free Agent list that could be a great pick-up:

Grab:

Minnesota's Marko Jaric qualifies as both a guard and a forward in most leagues.  In NBA.com leagues he qualifies as a PG and a SF.  On the season he is averaging just 9.5 PPG, 2.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists.  BUT in the past 3 or 4 games he has been great!  He has scored 14, 20, 21, and 12 while doling out 6 assists in the first 3 and 7 assists in his last outing along with 7 rebounds.  He is shooting 48.5% from the field and over 40% from 3 PT land.  If you need help with assists, he could be a good addition while also giving points and rebounds.  At 6' 7" he is an odd combination of PG and SF and he has Al Jefferson to throw the ball to on the inside.

Philadelpia's Louis Williams (PG, SG) - he has come off the bench to ignite the 76'ers when Korver was out.  He is averaging 11.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 3.6 APG.  He had a career game when he played Washington on Nov. 20 hitting 10 of 13 from the field including 4 of 4 from beyond the arc for 25 Pts.  Korver is back but Williams impressed enough while he was out that Williams is still getting minutes (about 22 a game).  He has scored in double digits 5 of his last 6 games and since Korver returned (last 2 games) has 6 assists in each game.  Again he is an assist play that can also give you points.

Memphis' PG Juan Carlos Navarro.  He finally signed with an NBA team after his rights were traded to the Grizzlies where his friend Gasol plays.  From Spain, this 6' 3" PG has been playing very well of late.  A 3 PT threat, he can also rebound and dish the ball.  One night he will give you 8 rebounds, the next maybe 7 assists plus double digit scoring.  If the Grizzlies start playing more consistent, he could be a 15 PPG, 6 or 7 Rebounds a game and 6 or 7 assist per game PG, SG.  He has done well for me since I added him last week.  He is shooting over 40% from beyond the arc and over 88% from the charity stripe on the season while averaging 10.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2 APG.  All 3 are higher of late as he has assumed the starting PG role.

New Jersey's Sean Williams -  I recommended him in a post I made on http://www.screamingsports.com back when he had back to back games of over 30 minutes.  He immediately quit seeing the PT, and as a result his stats have dropped.  But if you need someone to add block shots to your lineup, he is a good play still.  As soon as they start giving 25 minutes or more a game, he will be worth double digit points, 6 or more rebounds and 2 to4 blocks a game.  Worth having on your bench in leagues with limits on games played.  You can play him now for block shots and hope it is a game where the Nets let him play 25 minutes or more so you also get the points and rebounds.  Even in limited play he is good for about 7 PPG, 4 Reb and a block shot or 2.  Sooner or later the Nets will let him play.  You will want him then.

DROP:

Azubuike.  He was a great play early but has not been producing in the past 2 weeks.  Currently he is not a player you want.  Maybe he will turn it around.  I dropped him for Marko Jaric.

On the Bubble

Seattle's Damien Wilkins.  He has not performed well since his great game against Atlanta.  Of late he has been a player you'd rather have on your bench.  He has potential but is struggling of late to score and hasn't been getting rebounds or assists sufficient for a fantasy play at SG, SF.  I still have him in 1 league hoping he regains his early season play.