Hold or Fold?

 MLB Fantasy Baseball 2021 - Hold 'em or fold 'em?

"You've got to know when to hold 'em;

know when to fold 'em;

know when to walk away;

know when to run."

as "the Gambler" lyrics go is also true for Fantasy Sports.  Do you hold on to the start you drafted or drop him for someone who is hot and on the waiver wire?  Do you trade him?  

In one league, a manager dropped Boston's Alex Verdugo after the first week to grab Cubs SP Trevor Williams off the waiver wire.  In my opinion that was too quick but now we are preparing for week 4 of the season.  Is it still too quick?  The early bird gets the worm, after all.  

I grabbed his dropped Verdugo to strengthen my week OF replacing Tatis who went on the IR.  Now Tatis is back, I offered to trade Yoan Moncada and Mike Yastrzemski for Toronto's George Springer who is currently on IR.  I have 3 star 3B in Moncado, Devers and Suarez so in essence I am trading Moncado for Springer.  With Tatis back, I must drop a player and currently that would be Yastrzemski since LAA's Jared Walsh qualifies as OF now and Dodger's Chris Taylor has been hot.  That left Met's Dominic Smith or Yastrzemski to drop.  Smith qualifies at 1B and OF and projects about the same for points.  So I offered to trade for Springer who, once healthy, should anchor my OF in that league.

Making those snap decisions can make or break your fantasy season.  That crystal ball that says this break off is for real or this isn't a slump, it's a real fall.  There is no way to say who is right or wrong except time and time is a dear teacher.

Cincinnati's Tyler Naquin jumped out to the best stats of his career.  Some managers jumped to claim him.  I'm in a league where the opposing manager did that and it's a weekly lineup.  This week, Naquin has provided him -0.5 points while the stud he drafted but sat this week M. Ozuna has 15.5 points so far but is on his bench.

What about Baddoo?  Is his hot start for real?  Or will he fade?

CJ Cron?  Off to a slow start in Colorado.  Hold or fold?

Joc Pederson?  Hold or Fold?

or 

Jazz Chisholm (MIA)?  Grab or not?

Luke Weaver (SP ARI) Grab or not?

These are the decisions that will end up winning someone a championship.  Guessing right.  It could also cost someone a championship - guessing wrong.

My advice is to hold the true studs even when they are down but constantly evaluate your team versus the waiver wire.  If you have a fringe hitter or pitcher such as Joc Pederson, you should consider dropping them for someone who is hot especially if you think their hot streak is for real.  But keep the player you drop on your radar - you can grab them back if they heat up if now one claims them first like I did Verdugo.

It's a game of hit or miss.  To win, you need to hit more often than miss OR at least hit at the right time.

Aches and Pains - MLB Fantasy IR

 It didn't take long.

Before the season even started you had some key players placed on IR; many at the last moment which created havoc trying to get rosters ready.

SP Carlos Carrasco NYM wasn't added until after the season began.

NYY 1B Luke Voit was added on opening day.

Tor SP Robbie Ray was added on Opening Day

KC SS  Adalberto Mondesi was added just before opening day.

SD SP Dinelson Lamet - added after Opening Day

SD OF Trent Grisham was added after Opening Day

TB RP Nick Anderson was added just before Opening Day.

The above are ALL players I have on my fantasy teams.  Players I had to replace from Waivers after the season began.  Yahoo Sports only allows 6 adds a week.  That was OK if it applied to the shortened 4 game 1st week BUT Yahoo applies it to the first 11 games instead of giving a fresh 6 adds for this week.  I'm out of adds in 1 league in part because I expected Yahoo to renew the adds with a new week.  Hmmm

Now this week has seen:

LAD SP / RP Tony Gonsolin added 

BAL  3B  Ke'Bryan Hayes added

SD SS and Top Fantasy Draft Pick Fernando Tatis is added

My fantasy team is full of walking wounded.

LAD Utility Player Chris Taylor is hobbled and listed as DTD which means you can't rely on him.

This is one reason I dislike playing in leagues that freeze your lineup for the week once play starts - my CBS Sports Points League for example.  A player gets injured or a covid19 event causes a team to postpone and you are still stuck, unable to change anything.  For that reason I won't play CBS Sports leagues in the future.  I want daily lineup leagues.

Under the Radar = Texas Ranger SP Kohei Arihara

 Kohei Arihari is Japanese and thus relatively unknown (thus sleeper) and unheralded in MLB Fantasy circles except by those who get paid to follow and write or broadcast about Fantasy Sports.

He is playing for a Texas Ranger team without name recognition pitchers.

He throws 7 different pitches.  He is playing in a revamped Texas stadium which in shortened 2020 indicated that fly balls wouldn't fly out of the ball.  MLB revised the baseball itself so it has less get up and go and Texas has young unheralded Outfielders (and infielders).

Big league hitters won't have a lot of information on this pitcher.  That gives the pitcher an advantage.  The big question mark for me is run support - will Texas score enough runs for Arihari to get wins or will he throw innings and walk away with a no decision or loss due to lack of support?

I plan to claim Kohei off the waiver wire in one of my leagues today replacing Brad Keller - KC SP.  I added Keller because he has the start today.  Tomorrow it will be Kohei's turn.  Roll the Dice.  The season is young.

Opening Day - tomorrow and already snags in the system.

 So April 1 is tomorrow; and it's not just April's Fool day but also MLB Opening Day.

Are you ready?

I'm not.

I'm ready for the season to begin but my MLB Fantasy Teams are not yet ready.

It's NOT my fault.

For some reason (unknown to me), some injured players are not yet designated as IR so I have been unable to place them on the IR and choose a replacement from the waiver wire.

NYY Luke Voit will start the season on the IR yet in my Yahoo League he is simply shown as DTD

The same is true of NYM SP Carlos Carrasco who is expected to miss maybe 6 weeks because of an injured hamstring.  While I have Voit in a single league and it is a Roto, I have Carrasco in several leagues and they are HTH.

That means I will lose some value right off the bat (nice idiom) because I won't have a replacement for some players until after the season begins.  That's life.

Updated 7 pm CT  

Voit has finally been placed on IR; a waiver claim was made for Trevor Rogers (SP MIA) since TOR SP Robbie Ray was placed on the IR by Toronto for his bruised elbow (he fell at home and bruised it; not baseball related).  I also made a claim for Maikel Franco to make up some power loss from Voit being on the IR.

As of my last check, CArrasco still hasn't been placed on the IR in my leagues.

Also Adalberto Mondesi - SS KC has been placed on the IR to begin the season.  I have high hopes of a breakout season from Mondesi - hopefully injuries won't be a recurring theme with him this season.

Trouble in Paradise - Injuries in MLB 2021 already

 MLB Injuries impact fantasy teams

A week before the 2021 season starts, White Sox's Eloy Jimenez ruptures a pectoral muscle trying to make a catch in the outfield; a 4 Category start is now out probably for the season.  For those who haven't drafted their fantasy team yet, you need to drop Eloy from your draft list OR take him in the last rounds as an IR stash in case he can return before the end of the season.  A healthy Eloy provides Power with average so HRS, RBIs, Runs and Batting Ave / On-Base Percentage.  He didn't steal bases.

Tampa Bay's elite relief pitcher Nick Anderson suffered a partial tear of his elbow ligament and will be sidelined for months if he is able to heal without surgery (the current plan);

Toronto's Kirby Yates - a Closer - underwent Tommy John Surgery so is out for 2021

For those of us who have already drafted one of these players, it is to the waiver wire we must look for answers.  I have Eloy in one league and I have Nick Anderson in 1 league.  Eloy I chose to drop rather than wait for him to be designated as IR and replace him.  I have no faith in his ability to recover this season and return healthy.   Nick I am waiting for the Fantasy Team to show him as IR and I will place him on IR to see if he can recover - I'm not holding my breath though.

I never drafted Kirby Yates - I wasn't sold that his skills would let him keep the Closer job in Toronto.  Jordon Romano has the skills to take over as Closer though Toronto may use a committee.

Before you replace your injured star, take a look at what your team needs are.  Just because Eloy was a power bat and outfield doesn't mean you should replace him with a power bat or outfielder.  Look to see where your team, minus the player you are replacing, is weakest.  Maybe you need a Starting Pitcher?  Or a player to give you Stolen Bases.  Evaluate your team before you choose a replacement.

Next, evaluate the players on the waiver wire.  Often I will simply look to get the BEST Player Available, regardless of position.  Other times I will seek to fill a hole.  In the case of Nick Anderson, I have enough Relief Pitching without him.  In fact, Diego Castillo may get more save opportunities now since he won't be sharing those with Nick.  So for that league I will either take another Starting Pitcher OR a hitter.  I'm still evaluating until Nick is listed as IR.

In the league with Eloy, I also drafted NY Mets Starting Pitcher Carlos Carrasco who injured his hamstring.  Since he was an early pick as a SP, and not yet designated for IR, I opted to " You have successfully created a waiver claim for Tony Gonsolin dropping Eloy Jiménez"   Whenever the League designates Carlos is eligible for IR, I will replace him - maybe with another arm but maybe with another bat.  

Whether you chose a "safer"  pitcher or hitter off of waivers or take a chance on a younger player with upside, that will depend on the player you lost to injury and the team you have.  With the season starting next week, if you have already drafted and are replacing an early round pick such as Eloy, you may want to "swing for the fences" by choosing an unproven player who has the potential to break out this season OR a former elite player who has fallen such as Ranger's Kris Davis - once a 40 HR threat.  One potential player that may be on your waiver wire still is Rockies OF/2B Garrett Hampson.  In many leagues he went undrafted.  He has 20/30 potential and had a very good spring training.  

Whether tt

NBA Hot Shots - week 9

Are you needing some help at PG or maybe in the trenches at PF or Center? Usually finding gems at these positions at this time of year is difficult. But there may just be a couple lurking in your fantasy league's pool.

Players such as Charlotte Bobcat Center Nazr Mohammed, Cleveland Cavalier Anderson Varejao, Milwaukee's Yi Jian, and Houston Rocket Luther Head were some of the players I highlighted on Screaming Sports this past Monday as players to grab if available. See Screaming Sports Post

A couple to add to the list are Washington Wizard Roger Mason who has been exceptional the past 3 games and Josh Boone of the New Jersey Nets. Boone has been in double figures the past 3 games and had no fewer than 8 rebounds. Not bad for a waiver wire grab here at the end of the year. He seems to have found favor in New Jersey and is getting the minutes.

Roger Mason has replaced Antonio Daniels who in turn replaced Gilbert Arenas. The past 2 games has seen him score 20 and 24 points respectively. He also has averaged 4.5 assists and 5 rebounds while playing over 40 minutes a game. He is 16 of 27 from the field and 7 of 14 from behind the arc (he was just 1 of 5 against Indiana but bounced back with 6 of 9 against Charlotte). He is also an excellent free throw shooter 90.9% on the season. As he gets the minutes, I expect his assists to increase.

I dropped Boone from my NBA Rotisserie league because someone dropped Yi this week after he had a poor outing. I say I dropped Boone. Actually I conditionally dropped him while making a waiver claim on Yi. I hope I am successful. I chose to drop Boone rather than Varejao because Josh has not proven to be a good free throw shooter and that is an area my NBA team is doing well. I consider Boone and Varejao to be similar in ability to give you 7 to 10 rebounds a night and about 10 to 15 points. I am holding onto Bargnani hoping he turns his season back around. The report is that he is tired from playing all summer.

Kiss of death?

Kiss of death?

I recommend them, and the next game they fall apart. What kind of fate is that? I recommended Marko Jaric and he had a good start last night. He had 4 points and 4 assists in the opening minutes. Then he sprained his ankle. I haven't heard how serious the sprain is but he didn't play anymore yesterday.

Louis Williams from Philadelphia saw a total of 9 minutes of PT. I haven't heard if that was injury related or not but 9 minutes isn't going to make anyone a fantasy play.

NHL

On happier news, Havlat is back in Chicago. In his first game back he scored 2 goals for the Blackhawks and yesterday had an assist on their first score against Phoenix. After that Byfuglien took over. Basically an unknown in fantasy hockey circles before last night, Byfuglien scored 3 goals and had an assist as the Blackhawks jumped out to an early 5-0 lead over the Coyotes.

To place that into perspective, before Friday he had 3 G, 1 Assist, -1, 11 PIM, 1 PPP and 20 SOG for 24.5 fan Pts. Friday he was a Plus 2 and had 5 shots on Goal and added 4 Penalty Minutes for good measure in addition to the 3 Goals (2 on PP) and assist. In my league that totals 19 fantasy points. Not a bad coming out party. I added him to my watch list since this was his first game skating with a new line. Maybe it is a foretaste of things to come. But I'm not going to grab him until I see more.

Parise gets the hat trick

Devils forward Zach Parise had his first hat trick on Friday night in a 4-0 win against the Montreal Canadiens. Parise scored a goal in each period and assisted on Brian Gionta's third period goal.

Atlanta recalls Goalie Kari Lehtonen Saturday from an AHL reconditioning assignment after missing 16 games with a groin injury. Kari started the season awful before the injury. However not only did teh Thrashers recall Lehtonen but he is starting at Goalie tonight for them. Needing a Starting Goalie, I added him by dropping Mike Smith. I won't get the benefit (or detriment) of Lehtonen until tomorrow. I now have him, Coyotes' Bryzgalov who had an awful game last night against Chicago and Montreal plattooner Huet as my 3 Goalies. Other than Goalie, I have a strong fantasy team with:

C Mike Ribeiro (Dal - C)
C Martin Straka (NYR - C,LW)
C Jason Williams (Chi - C,RW)
C Zach Parise (NJ - C,LW)

LW Evgeni Malkin (Pit - C,LW)
LW Ilya Kovalchuk (Atl - LW)

RW Martin Havlat (Chi - RW)
RW Justin Williams (Car - RW)
RW Martin Erat (Nsh - LW,RW)

D Bryan McCabe (Tor - D)
D Nicklas Lidstrom (Det - D)
D Brent Burns (Min - D)
D Shea Weber (Nsh - D)

We can play 2 Centers, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 Defensemen and 2 Goalies daily. Having players like Erat and all of my Centers other than Ribeiro able to play multiple positions helps. I am currently 4th out of 12 in my Yahoo Point league. With a little consistentcy at Goalie, I could get to #1.