MLB 2021 Fantasy - Players to keep an Eye on - Catcher

As April 1 approaches,  the search for the player or players that will out perform expectations as well as recognize players that may underperform is a key to winning a fantasy baseball title.

Every year the difference in finishing first or not often comes down to the manager who grabbed a player that was overlooked or undervalued.

Losing often comes down to bad luck - injuries of key players who can't be replaced from the waiver wire but the truth is few managers wina fantasy title without making moves on the waiver wire.

Catchers:

One player I am intrigued by going into 2021 is Toronto Catcher Alejandro Kirk.  Catchers is a shallow pool of production so if anyone performs well, it is an asset to have them on your team

So far, Kirk is hitting BUT the question for him as it is for many players is playing time.  I don't have Kirk on any of my 3 teams yet but do have him on my watch list as I wait to see how much playing time he may get in Toronto.

The other Catcher who has my attention is Shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa of Texas.  He seems to be set to play predominately at shortstop for Texas and bat 3rd in the order but is also eligible at 3B and Catcher.  Last season Isiah hit 0.280 and stole 8 bases.  A player who is Cather eligible and stealing 20 bases?  That is what I see.  He won't won't me on average and he will provide a rare stat these days in stolen bases.  Batting 3rd should also give him an opportunity to provide useful stats in runs and RBIs whether he hits a ton of HRs or not.  I'll take 10 HRS / 20 SBs with a 0.280 average from my Catcher position.  

New World Wonders 2 - 2nd Yahoo Head to Head League draft

 New World Wonders 2

I participated in my second fantasy baseball draft of 2021 and I liked the results better.  No one knows what the future holds but I have a better mix to start the season.  Again this was a 12 team, head to head league on Yahoo Sports.

I was drafting 11th out of 12 which means having 2 picks close together and then a long wait.  With pick 11, I took Jose Ramirez - 3 B with Cleveland and with pick 14 I grabbed another 3rd baseman - Manny Machado who is also eligible at SS.  Pick 3?  I took Boston's Xander Bogaerts - another SS so with 3 picks I have 2 Third Basemen and 2 Shortstops.  With my 4th pick I took NYY D.J. LeMahieu who is eligible at 1, 2 and 3.  

So to start the draft I stuck to my game plan of taking hitters the first 4 picks before taking a pitcher AND I gave the benefit of the doubt to players who had multi-position eligibility.  I love that flexibility in HTH leagues.  I didn't pick a player because of his multi-player eligibility  (in other words I didn't take a worst player just because they had eligibility at more than 1 position) but if it was close, it was the difference maker.

My plan was to take a Starting Pitcher at round 5 but I deviated and took Josh Hader with pick 59 and Liam Hendriks with pick 62 setting up my Closers early.  I decided I could find more starting pitchers late than reliable closers.

With pick 83 (7th pick) I took NYM SP Carlos Carrasco.  Switching from American League to National League and playing home games at Citifield, his stats could be very good.  

In the 8th Round I took BlueJays versatile player, Lourdes Gurriel, Jr who is eligible at 2B and OF.  I took him as the best OutFielder available for 5x5 fantasy - he gives me power, runs, RBIs and a chance for SBs.

My next pick went SP with D. Lamet who has some of the best stuff in MLB.  The only issue is can he stay healthy.  I like him this year because the Padres Bullpen is loaded with 4 pitchers who have closer experience.  That could lead to extra WINS for Lamet this season.  He just needs to take a lead into the 6th inning.

My next pick was Mike Moustakas of Cincy.  I think he will rebound this year.  He is playing in a Hitters park in Cincinnati and he has power.  If he can hit .265 or higher, he will give me a lot of HRs, RBIs and Runs.  He won't give me SBs.  With LeMahieu on my team, I can afford to have some hitters who don't hit for average.  I'm hoping Moustakas can carry his weight on average anyway but if he hits 40 HRS with a .225 average, I can absorb it.

Round 11, I took what I saw as the best available - Kevin Gausman - SP with San Francisco.  If he was picthing for a team like the Dodgers, he would probably be a very early draft pick.  He will give me a lot of Ks and hopefully maintain a WHIP and ERA that is more than competitive.  The question is, will his offense score runs to let him earn those Ws?

Round 12 saw me take Dylan Moore of Seattle.  When he was healthy is 2020, he produced across the board.  Here I added him to make me competitive in SBs.  

Round 13, I took Miami hurler Sixto Sanchez.  I picked him up in 2020 and he was fantastic.  Another year of experience and I'm hoping he pitches like an SP 1.  

Round 14 saw me take a chance on Chicago's Ian Happ.  He is expected to leadoff for the Cubs which means that he could score a ton of runs in addition to hitting 25 or more HRs.

Round 15, I took a chance on another Cub - Craig Kimbrel.  He was once the ACE closer in MLB and then took a tumble when he left Boston and joined the Cubs.  BUT he resurged last season and looked back to form.  If that second half of 2020 relief pitcher is the one in 2021, I got a steal.  I'll keep an eye on his stats and gran Rowan Wick if Kimbrel stumbles (or try to grab him).

This gave me the 3 Closers I wanted on my pitching staff.  With 3, I should be able to win Saves most weeks and hopefully compete for WHIP and ERA.  

in Round 16, pick 182, I took LAA SP S. Ohtani.  He has looked "back" to form in early Spring Season games.  I saw little risk in taking him as my 5th Starting Pitcher.  If he is back to form, he will return SP 1 value.

Round 17 and 18, I took hitting.  In 17, I went with Mariner Prospect, J. Kelenic.  He figures to give you across the board production IF he gets playing time.  I consider J. Walsh here but he doesn't have the SB upside of Kelenic.

Round 18 I went ahead and took Rockies 1B CJ Chron.  If I only play him when they play in Colorado, he should hit enough HRs to justify the pick.  Don't be surprised if he hits over 40HRs this season and with a batting average of 0.250 or better.

Round 19, I took another potential 35 - 40 HR hitter in Joc Pederson.  He is with the Cubs now and just 2 years ago hit almost 40 HRs.  So far in Spring Training he has been hitting well.

Round 20, I took Diego Castillo of TB.  Diego qualifies as SP and RP.  That lets me picth him in a SP slot if I have a lineup without 2 SPs scheduled.  He will also be one of the 3 RPs in Tampa Bay closing.  

Pick 21, I took Texas Ranger Isiah Kiner-Falefa whom I have been targeting in my drafts.  He is Catcher eligible but playing SS and batting 3rd for the Rangers.  In 2020 he had 8 SBs, 28 runs and hit 0.280 in a shortened season.  I expect him to perform much better than Yahoo forecasts so long as he hits 3rd and hits 0.275 or better.  Don't be surprised if he swipes 20 or more bases and scores 75 runs.  I figure he is good for 10 Homeruns and maybe 70 RBIs.  Time will tell.  

My final 2 picks saw me take Injured pitchers, Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard.  Why not?  I can place them on the IR and take 2 players off of waivers.

Initially I have chosen to take Severino (NYY SP who is also on IR) and Jon Berti who is in my opinion undervalued.  If I win both off waivers, I'll place Severino on IR (there are 4 IR slots) and take another pitcher.  I'm still debating which pitcher to add.

One change I made for this draft was creating a draft sheet in Numbers (Apple's Spreadsheet) in which I could track the hitting stats - HRs, RBIs, Runs and SBs - so at a glance I could see how my team was faring overall based on projections.  

My roster after the draft (before adding players from Waivers to replace the 2 IR).

Have fun playing Fantasy Baseball in 2021

First MLB Draft of 2021 Results

 I am not entirely pleased with my first draft of 2021.

I started at the 2nd position.  The first pick went Tatis leaving me with what most see as as the #1 pick in Acuna.  So far so good.  With my 2nd pick, I took Mondesi leaving me solid on steals but light on HRS, and RBis but that is ok - lots of power left in later rounds; not so many stolen bases.  

In the Third, I took Eloy Jimenez.  Power.

But in the 4th I deviated from my script.  My plan going in was to draft hitters the first 4 rounds and then take pitching in 5 and 6.  in the 4th I took SP B. Woodruff and Vlad in round 5.  I considered taking Kyle Tucker in 4 and probably should have.  It would have solidified RBIs, Runs, SBs and added Hrs.  Vlad won't give me any SBs.  Still it was Ok.

In Round 6 I took Closer Karinchak.  

In 7 I should have taken my second Closer.  Instead I took NYM SP Carrasco.  My 2nd deviation from my plan.  I thought Iglesias or Jansen would fall to me in Round 8 but they didn't.  Hindsight is 20/20.  In my Mock drafts, the other teams held off drafting closers after the first 3 went off the board.

In 8, with Iglesias and Kansen taken before me, I took another SP - Lamet.  

In 9, my internet stalled just as my pick came up. My autodraft was Max Muncy.  He has power and hits in the middle of a powerful lineup for the Dodgers.  No SBs but I should get HRS, RBis and Runs from him plus 3 position eleigibility.

Round 10, I took Reds Mike Moustakis.  He is similar to Muncy but playing for the Reds.  He had an off year in 2020 but should be good for 30 HRs playing in Cincy.

Round 11, I took Dominic Smith when I should have probably taken Dylon Moore.  Moore would give me needed steals while Smith gives me HRS and RBIs.  Hopefully he scores enough runs.  Moore had multi-player eligibility which makes shuffling daily lineups easier.  Still at 11, my roster was OK.

In 12, I took RP Devin Williams - while he is a good pitcher and will improve the bottom line on ERA, WHIP and add Ks, he won't give me Saves or wins.  I should have taken Happ or Mountcastle here.

In 13, I took my 2nd closer.  Rafael Montero.  He should have been my 3rd closer - my plans - but he is my second.

Round 14, I took power - Santander and in 15 my 3rd Closer - Pomeranz.  If he is a definite Closer for Padres and not a committee, I should now have focused on hitting.  But I had my doubts and that hurt the rest of my draft as I mixed relief pitchers still in with hitters taking both Leclerc and Hernandez from Texas (not knowing which will close).

C   Isiah Kiner-Falefa Tex - C,3B,SS
1B   Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tor - 1B,3B"
2B   Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B"
3B   Mike Moustakas Cin - 1B,2B,3B
SS   Adalberto Mondesi KC - SS"
OF   Ronald Acuña Jr. Atl - OF"
OF   Eloy Jiménez CWS - OF"
OF   Dominic Smith NYM - 1B,OF"
U   Anthony Santander Bal - OF"
U Nick Solak Tex - 2B,3B,OF"
Bench C.J. Cron Col - 1B


Pitchers
SP Brandon Woodruff Mil - SP"
SP Carlos Carrasco NYM - SP,RP"

SP Dinelson Lamet SD - SP
SP Aaron Civale Cle - SP"

IL SP   MIKE CLEVINGER
IL     SP Noah Syndergaard NYM - SP

RP   Diego Castillo TB - SP,RP"
RP   James Karinchak Cle - RP"
RP   Rafael Montero Sea - RP"
RP   Devin Williams Mil - RP"
RP   Drew Pomeranz SD - SP,RP"
RP   José Leclerc Tex - SP,RP

RP   Jonathan Hernández Tex - RP"

I purposely took Syndergaard with a late pick to add him to the IL.  I then added Clevinger also.  with 4 IL spots, I still have 2 for regular season use and can drop Clevinger or Syndergaard if necessary (IF my team is plagued with injuries).

IF Pomeranz starts the season strong as a closer, I may trade him for a hitter.  Currently my plan is to add a hitter from waivers and go with 4 Starting pitchers with relievers.  

Mock Draft Results

Yahoo mock draft for a 12 team draft; Head to Head, 5x5

With my first draft of the season coming up tomorrow I joined a mock draft to test my idea of drafting hitters for the first 4 rounds, then taking a starting pitchers and 3 top closers.  I chose the middle position to test it out.  My results follow:

My first 9 picks were:

1.  Mookie Betts

2.  A. Mondesi

3.  Ozzie Albies

4.  W. Merrifield (I wanted to see my team if I took him.  With Mondesi drafted I probably would have                               gone Power bat here - maybe J. Abreu, M. Ozuna)

5.  T. Glascow

6.  J. Hader

7.  S. Gray

8.  J. Karinchak

9.  K. Jansen

This projects me to finish 4th according to Yahoo.  That would be based on points and this is HTH.  Plus I think it undervalues the playing time of many of the players I choose - note the projected ABs for players like Dominic Smith and Ke'Bryan Hayes both draft targets of mine.  I expect both to be daily players so the projected ABs of 431 and 428 are low in my opinion.  

I purposely took Chris Sale to test out which pitchers would still be left undrafted.  My plan tomorrow is to draft both Chris Sale and Noah Snydergaard and then place them on the IL and fill in from the waiver wire post draft.  

Most drafts from the 6th spot will give me Mike Trout rather than Mookie Betts.  I may look at adding Colorado OF Tapia to my lineup to give me more runs - one area this mock draft (with the ABS projected) show me being weak.

Now I need to test it again from a low draft position like 12.

Final preparations for MLB 2021 fantasy draft

Draft Tips and strategies

 So you have completed your initial draft list.  You have rearranged the league standard list into a list more aligned with your own ideas of this person should be drafted before this person.

Now it's time to make the final preparations for the draft.  A bad draft doesn't mean you should throw in the towel BUT a good draft makes winning easier.  So let's start with a good draft.

Mock Draft - doing a mock draft will help you have a successful real draft in fantasy sports.  I did several mock drafts at Yahoo Sports  using my predraft list and from different positions in the draft - early pick, middle pick and last pick.  The software graded my draft as a B which is OK with me because I disagree with some of their projections.

Hitting:

I sort my draft list using batting average and color code the results:

When I used actually statistics from 2020 - shortened Covid impacted season - I get a lot of hitters who hit well - Orange = >300; Dark Green = .290 and higher but also pink <0.250, yellow <0.270    I try to avoid hitters whose average is below 0.250 because avg is one of the 5 hitting stats and a couple of players below 0.250 means you will risk always losing that stat.  Instead I try to find hitters with similar profiles with better averages.  Preferably hitters who don't have yellow or pink colors.

I also sorted using Fantasypros projections for 2021.  There were only 4 hitters projected to hit above .300 and several hitters who had horrible 2020 seasons (in the pink) are projected to rebound in 2021.

Pitching:

I don't have the same metrics for pitching as I have for hitting.  For hitting I can use the Total 4 score (R, RBIs, HRs and Sbs) plus color coding.  This is especially good for points leagues.  In Head to head I must still maintain a sense of balance - do I have enough HRs?  Enough Sbs?  I want to win 3 out of 5 stats each week in hitting and 3 in pitching. 6 out of 10 = win.

So for pitching - wins, saves, strikeouts, WHIP and ERA.  I focus on getting a couple of pitchers who will be Starting Pitchers 1 or 2 on their teams who have good WHIP, ERA and Ks.  

I need 20 innings minimum so I focus more or Relief Pitching by trying to draft 4 closers.  If I get 4 quality Closers then I should win Saves, WHIP and ERA.  

With Starting Pitchers who give me high K/9 I may also win the K category and maybe even wins.  

So of the 8 pitching slots, I try for 3 SPs and 5 Relief Pitchers with at least 4 of those 5 being closers.  I then add 3 more pitchers for pitchers for the bench with at least 1 being a reliever who has Starting eligibility such as Seth Lugo or Diego Castillo.  The other 2 may be High Upside Starting Pitchers who have good K/9 and limited risk for ERA.  Elieser Hernandez from Miami is one such pitcher I am targeting late. 

Please NOTE:  If you are playing in a league that is points or Roto, these pitching tips won't work.  They are good for head to head.

Fantasy Baseball 2021 - setting your PREdraft list

 Yahoo’s PreDraft Rankings is certainly not aligned with my values.  If I leave their settings and miss the draft I will end up with a lot of pitchers early and miss key offense.  

I start with Fantasy Pros composite ranking.  So first I reorder Yahoo’s Predraft list to resemble Fantasy Pros list.  Then I rearrange it based on my personal examination of the player pool.  But even if I went strictly with Fantasy Pros composite list without any adjustments of my own, I think I’d have a better draft than using Yahoo’s Default.

Adjusting the drafting list takes time but is worth it.  The default list by Yahoo is heavy on pitching and speculative.  Gerit Cole is their default # 1 and he is a good pitcher but for fantasy purposes, most will have Jacob deGrom drafting before Gerit Cole.  Why?  deGrom pitches at Citifield which is one of the BEST pitching parks in MLB.   But top pitchers aside, Yahoo’s default will have you drafting relief pitchers who not closers over hitters you need to win.  

Of course, if all the other fantasy players follow Yahoo and draft Chris Martin before Cody Bellinger then it doesn’t matter.  But they won’t.  Some will enter the draft unprepared and their draft will suck.  Don’t let that person be you.

In the screenshot of my spreadsheet, you can see My rank - 1st column - and Yahoo's default rank - before the players name (I copied my list from Yahoo and pasted it into my spreadsheet so it shows Yahoo's default ranking before the player's name).  Don't worry about the colors - I used them to alert myself to move players on the list before I finished my ranking.

FantasyPros and MLB are 2 sites that provide a lot of free cheatsheets and of course ESPN (I haven’t even looked at ESPN yet this year for fantasy).  Look at their suggested draft order and I suggest starting with FantasyPros as your default.

Once you have taken the time to arrange Yahoo’s default drafting list into a better list, then adjust it.

For Yahoo 12 team Head to Head teams, you will draft 23 players each so 276 players in total.  Collectively, the 12 team will need to draft 120 hitters and 96 pitchers plus 60 bench players.  Those 60 bench players could be all hitters, all pitchers or a combination (most likely).  So your draft list needs to have only about 300 players.

Among those 300 players on your list, you should have players you want to take in the later rounds who have upside.  By round 20, your basic team is set.  You can take a chance on a breakout player or a prospect OR take an injured player.  If you take an injured player, you have 4 IR spots so after the draft, place the injured player on the IR and replace them with a player from the undrafted pool.  This year you have both Chris Sale (Boston Starting Pitcher) and Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets) starting pitcher on the IL coming back from Tommy John Surgery and Yankee Pitcher Severino who never fully recovered last season.  All 3 could be useful stashed on the IL - You don’t want to use all 4 IL spots on drafted players since once the season begins you will need to use the IL for some of your rostered players who get injured. But using 1 or 2?  Why not.  Worst case you can drop them if necessary.

once you think you have your 300 players listed and aligned as you like, test the list by doing a Mock draft.  Select using your draft list in the mock draft.  I suggest doing at least 3 mock drafts - draft from position 1, middle and last.  You don’t know the draft order until just before your draft so see how your team looks if you draft from 3 different spots. Then adjust your draft list again to fix any problems you spot - maybe you need to move a hitter up or a pitcher or you may be able to move somebody down.   The screen shot above shows a mock draft on Yahoo - note I selected to use my draft ranking list so the software now shows - my ranking, Yahoo's default rank and what they call XRank which I think stands for experts ranking.  You can toggle between them and this is useful IF you have a lot of players who didn't create their own custom list.  You can get an idea of who the system is suggesting they draft at that moment and anticipate when your targeted player may be drafted.  Play with it in your mock drafts so you are comfortable using it come draft day.  Also play with Search for a player BUT if you customize your draft list before the draft day, that shouldn't be a problem.  For example, Texas Closer Jose Leclerc won't be in Yahoo's default listing.  They have him at 1960 or something.  You'll need to adjust the list so you see him if you want to draft him or use the search feature - better to add him before the draft.

Finally, monitor the news before the draft and adjust your list or draft plan accordingly.  For example, Houston Pitcher Framber Valdez was a “hot" pick going into the preseason based on last year.  He was being drafted about 100 so 9th round.  The first day pitching in spring training?  He fractured his ring finger.  That will impact his value.  Drafting him at 100 is now too high.  His training will be disrupted so expect him to pitch fewer innings this year than originally projected.

2021 MLB PreDraft - Know your League Settings

 Fantasy Sportsaholic MLB Draft Prep

My first 2021 draft is set on Yahoo for Saturday, March 6

Remember I said it was important to “know” the league settings. 

This league has what I consider a pretty basic lineup - C 1B 2B 3B SS OF OF OF and 2 Utility Players.   They also allow for 5 bench players and importantly 4 Injured.  Last year with Covid I felt at times I didn’t have enough IL spots.  4 is good.  2 is iffy.  0 is a nightmare.

Now go to settings (under League Tab) and check the scoring and other information.

The league is head to head with daily lineups - I prefer daily lineups.

No Maximum for acquisitions on the season BUT there is a weekly maximum of 6 - that will allow some weekly changes but not full streaming of pitchers for example.  

Note also that the pitching requirement of 20 minimum innings pitched each week.  That means you probably need a couple of pitchers each week who start and pitch 5 innings each.  Plan for 3 Starting pitchers minimum is better.  

Note the “allow injured players from waivers to go directly to IL” is NO.  That means IF I want to add an IL eligible player to my roster (stash them for later), I need an empty spot on my roster first.  I may have another player who is IL eligible whom I can move to IL first and then add the new player, and then move them to IL or I may have to drop a player first.  Some Team Managers will drop very good players to waivers when they go on IL.  Some I will take knowing they will make a difference for my team after coming off IL.

 

Now notice the Scoring - again this is now 5x5 scoring that is more or common (but not every league follows it so always check your scoring).  R+HR+RBIs+SBs form the core of the hitter stats along with Avg.  

Pitching is also 5 - W, S, Ks, ERA and WHIP.

So now as I consider players to draft I am looking at my combined 4 (R+HRS+RBIS+SBS) as my tool.  I want players who give me the highest total BUT also need to keep an eye open for SBs and Avg.  For Pitching I am watching WHIP and K/9 while keeping ERA in mind but if their WHIP is good the ERA should also be good.  I don’t focus on Wins but try to draft a couple of SP1 (Pitchers who are the first tier pitcher for their team) plus 3 closers then get high k/9 low Whip pitchers even if they are not SPs or Closers.  Often a relief pitcher who gets 2 or 3 innings or even a setup pitcher who just pitches 1 inning will pick up wins while giving you Ks and low WHIP.  If yo have 3 good closers on your pitching staff, you can win 4 of the 5 Pitching stats each week and win your league.

Now you know your League Settings, it’s time to arrange your Draft List - Do NOT rely on the Default setting.

Next Blog - setting your Pre-Draft Rankings.